Mark Juviler - Short DIA -
Casey Allen - Long DIA - 2.07 avg range (14-day)
David Brandman - Long ETFC - open 2.38, 0.37 avg rg.
Randy Shapiro - Long Gold - long GLD - 86.42 open Jan 10th, 1.37 avg rg. Feb Gold crossed $900 Jan 11, GLD at 88.76. Entry therefore 88.76. If definition of "cross" is different, perhaps on a closing basis, then I can adjust, for now GLD only touched over $900 based on Feb futures.
Ernie Arnow - Buy POT - 135.16, avg rg 7.27.
John Wellbourne - Buy AEGG - 0.72 open/offering price, avg rg 0.13.
Jim McCarthy - Buy Crude Oil = USO - down 50c from 75.25 = 74.75 entry. 1.91 avg rg.
Herb - Buy Natural Gas = UNG - 39.25 open, 1.14 avg rg.
Rolf Olson - Buy MBIA = MBI. Open 12.99, avg rg 2.73. (Due to the extremely large average range = high risk = In order to risk $8500 in this stock, we only need to buy 3100 shares (8500/2.73 = 314 shs) or $43,000 (4.3% of portfolio). But we will discuss allocating 8.5% of portfolio as well as the much smaller 4.3% risk-adjusted portfolio position size.)
Peter Afif - Buy DBA (Commodity ETF) - 34.71 entry, 0.65 avg rg.
Ken McCue - Buy SPY on Jan 22. Avg rg will be reported at that time.
Tim West - Sell Short TLT - 94.87 entry. Avg rg 0.93.
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For position size, divide $8,500 risk per position by three times the average daily range. We do this so that our 12 positions have a total risk of 10% of our $1,000,000 portfolio. I'll use an excel spreadsheet to enter this data so you can see the position sizes.
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DIA -
DIA - 2.07 avg range - no position
Long ETFC - open 2.38, 0.37 a.r. = $8,500/(0.37*3) = 7657 shs = $18,225 (2% capital)
Long GLD - 1.37 avg rg. 88.76 = $8,500/(1.37*3) = 2068 shs = $183,566 (18% capital)
Long POT - 135.16, avg rg 7.27 = $8,500/(7.27*3) = 389 shs = $52,675 (5% capital)
Long AEGG - 0.72 open/offering price, avg rg 0.13. = $8,500/(.13*3) = 21794 shs = $15,692 (2% capital)
Long Crude Oil = USO - down 50c from 75.25 = 74.75 entry. 1.91 avg rg. = $8,500/(1.91*3) = 1483 shs = $110,885 (11% capital)
Long Natural Gas = UNG - 39.25 open, 1.14 avg rg. = $8,500/(1.14*3) = 2485 shs = $97,551 (10% capital)
Long MBIA = MBI. Open 12.99, avg rg 2.73. = 1037 shs = $13,481 (1% capital)
Long DBA = 34.71 entry, 0.65 avg rg. = $8,500/(.65*3) = 4358 shs = $151,300 (15% capital)
Buy SPY on Jan 22. Avg rg will be reported at that time.
Short TLT - 94.87 entry. Avg rg 0.93. = $8,500/(.93*3) = 3046 shs = $289,030 (29% capital).
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All summed up - we have 93% of capital contributed and we have only 9 of 12 positions on as 2 offset each other and the last gets put on January 22.
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Now all of these calculations might make you think I have lost my mind, so I will also put the portfolio together utilizing equal capital per position and we'll see the difference. The key here is that volatility drives position size. If volatility reduces in each position, then position size can increase. If volatility increases, then position size should decrease. We will only hold a static position for this exercise.
======================
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where investors and traders exchange ideas to "make money" and "save money"
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Each month there is a prize for picking the best trading idea. All the ideas are posted here for all members & guests to see. The best idea wins the $$$ prize. $2 prize pool per person. $2 additional if you'd like a 2nd guess. Currently no guess limit.
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Rules: Divide price change by average price change over 10 days.
Example: Two bullish market forecasts in DJIA and SILVER. The DJIA moved up 3% divided by a 1% avg range = "3". SILVER moved up 3% divided by a 3% avg range ="1". The DJIA wins with a 3 range rally.
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Rules: Divide price change by average price change over 10 days.
Example: Two bullish market forecasts in DJIA and SILVER. The DJIA moved up 3% divided by a 1% avg range = "3". SILVER moved up 3% divided by a 3% avg range ="1". The DJIA wins with a 3 range rally.
7 comments:
Tim, Directors of AEGG bought shares at .55 and 1.4
SCLN is historically cheap and is expecting Melanoma trial results soon. It is being accumulated by a large privately held Italian biotech company called Sigma-Tau, (who now own 20% or more) and are running the Melanoma trial. I've been following the company for a while and there is a decent chance Zadaxin will get FDA approval one day. Good news could double the stock in short order.
Microtune (TUNE)has their chips going into ALL the big car manufacturers TV systems, this might be the year it breaks out on a big earnings jump. They won a patent dispute with Broadcom a few years ago and own the best chip architecture in the RF digital TV space.
I watched TUNE print a few 6.11 and SCLN 1.95, but I think the market has some more bloodletting ahead of it so hold out for those prints or better
TUNE Designed Into MOT STB
Microtune remains our top pick
After returning from this week’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las
Vegas, we continue to view TUNE as the most compelling investment idea
in our digital media coverage universe. Per our checks, we believe that
TUNE has been designed into Motorola’s next generation MoCA
compatible whole-home DVR STB. With this design win, TUNE has
clearly established itself as the dominate silicon tuner supplier in the cable
industry, in our opinion. As such, we are reiterating TUNE as our top pick
and raising our PT to $9.
TUNE designed into MOT’s next-gen STB
We believe that Microtune’s MoCA (Multimedia over Coax Alliance)
compatible MT2122 silicon tuner has been designed into Motorola’s next
generation whole-home DVR STB. Motorola’s (MOT, $14.93, NR) wholehome
DVR STBs permit the streaming of recorded video content from a
host DVR STB to any other STB in a home via MoCA networking. We
expect production shipments of these STBs to occur in the 2H’08 and
anticipate widespread adoption across major MSO’s, as cable providers
will be compelled to react to enhanced telco TV offerings, such as AT&T
(T, $39.40, NR) U-verse, who earlier this week announced that it will begin
rolling out whole-home DVR capabilities in 2008 and increased its CAPEX
spending forecasts.
DOCSIS 3.0 remains a monopoly for TUNE
While CPE OEMs will be required to resubmit products for CableLabs cert
wave 57 later this month, we continue to believe that TUNE will continue to
retain its monopoly market share position for DOCSIS 3.0 products across
MOT, Cisco (CSCO, $26.24, NR), and Arris Group (ARRS, $8.55, NR).
We believe that Broadcom (BRCM, $24.90, NR) continues to struggle to
introduce a DOCSIS 3.0 solution, as the company was still only able to
demo a prototype / FPGA solution at this year’s CES.
Raising estimates and PT to $9. Reiterate BUY.
We are raising our estimates for 2008, which reflects our increasing
confidence in Microtune’s outlook, as well as the company’s new design
wins at MOT. We are raising our CY’08 revenue est from $113M to
$116M. Accordingly, we are increasing our EPS est from 24c to 29c on
higher revenues and slightly lower OPEX assumptions. We are raising our
PT to $9 based on 30x our CY’08 EPS estimate of 29c. While company
fundamentals are as strong as ever, in our analysis, we remain convinced
that Microtune remains an attractive acquisition target with its superior IP,
dominate market position, and tier-1 customer base. Reiterate BUY.
http://www.stimson.org/cnp/?SN=CT20050826906
blurb on SCV-07 SCLN's other immune boosting drug that originated in Russia, that also has ongoing trials. Both or their drugs (Zadaxin and SCV-07) work and are marketed, they have yet to get by the FDA in the US. Should they do so, it will go back into the teens. Odds? this year should be telling, but 2 bucks is cheap for a co that has sales already with so much potential. They already KNOW that Zadaxin increases Melanoma survival
John,
Thanks for all of the comments and ideas. This is a great way to "timestamp" your call. The SCLN looks interesting indeed. TUNE also looks good. AEGG is under pressure here - anything new?
Tim
this is a great working forum its so easy to post. Microtune is trading off around 5.6 with their earnings due on thursday feb 7. I would buy for the long term here as their chips are going into everything now and a recent deal with IBM.
SCLN is no longer a one trick pony as they announced a new trial today. This is a very speculative biotech. Zadaxin has a lot of data behind it showing it works in some applications. During the SARS epidemic the Chinese were buying Zadaxin like crazy. They sell quite a bit there every year for Hepatitis B.
Tim, wow your silver chart looks perfect. It was an interesting month for club picks in general.
AEGG volume has dried up and will bounce hopefully before the next meeting. Put in your bids on down to .52 ... I'll go out on a limb and say they FINALLY announce their PV-10 news late this month. (proved reserves) $$$$ A short seller is holding it down, a perfect time to buy the bid if you can.
I don't have many particular stock ideas but the microcap natgas universe has the worst charts I've ever seen... since the new SEC PV-10 rule. That tide looks to be ready to turn, if you want me to present a BRIEF schpiel with a few charts. I think the group as a whole could table names from this sector, since the ones I have I just dug up recently.
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