Greetings from Tim!
Football practices continue for my 7th grader because we WON the Regional Championship and are headed to National Championships in Orlando, Florida next week. Cheer us on! Send us your good thoughts in the mornings (9AM-10AM start time likely) of Monday, Wednesday & Friday next week. I believe in the power of positive thinking - and hope the boys can bring home the metal.
For those of you who came to last month's event - THANK YOU! You all made such a great night of ideas and perspectives. A BIG THANK YOU TO DREW STIETZEL for his follow up presentation to his summer presentation on geothermal with the GAS-BUSTER idea that extends the MPG's on your vehicles using a form of hydrogen boosting power. Drew did a great job of teaching us about the technology and hope to see Drew get his business up and running so he can install them in our vehicles as soon as possible.
Thanks also to Pierce Onthank from AEGG (American Energy Group) who gave us an excellent insight into his natural gas pipeline business in Pakistan. It sure sounded like business was going full speed ahead and the stock is up nicely to $1.00 from his previous presentations at $0.65 and $0.75. AEGG is located in Westport at Gorham Island.
Thanks to Mark Juviler for connecting us to the web using his Apple iPhone as a modem! It was very helpful to have that connection to pull up charts on each person's idea for us all to review. The "INVESTMENT IDEAS" are at the link on this website - http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4P2Qbq7qqC1UZpy1VImeAw
There were many ideas at the last meeting. Using LIMITED LEVERAGE - the strategy we employ at the group is up over 40% this year! If you chose to double-lever the strategy you could be up 85%. Congrats to all of you who have put your best foot forward.
THE AWARD TO THE WINNER from the October 1 meeting was Susan who shorted the S&P500 for a massive 7 range profit. Remember a 3 range profit = 1% return to the portfolio (if there are 10 ideas). Come to the meeting to learn more about how to "size" positions and how to measure risk.
Remember the mission of the group is for us all to share our perspective, experience, and insights to help all of us make money in our portfolios and/or to save money (like geothermal-dx technology for home heating/cooling/hot water). WE ALL ARE BETTER OFF WHEN WE SHARE!
Let me know if you are coming - we had 15 people at our last meeting and we have room for a few more. Do reply early! I have a few ideas for speakers. If you would like to present something to the group, let me know.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Meeting Announcement - Wed, Nov 19th, 5:30PM drinks - 6PM dinner/presentation -Bogey's Grill
Greetings from Tim & Mark!
As far as a SPEAKER for our event - I'm happy to say that I may once again invite Drew Stietzel who WOWED us this summer with his "GAS-BUSTING" presentation on the wonders of GEOTHERMAL-DX which made it very clear to us that there is a way OUT of our demand for "home heating oil" with an investment in copper-tubing in the ground with refridgerant collecting heat in winter or dispersing heat in summer right into the ground. (Side-note: since that meeting the price of oil has dropped $80 per barrel from the $140 area to the $60 area)
WELL GET THIS! This one is even BETTER (I think). Drew has found a way to boost gas mileage on automobiles by 100% (He guarantees 50%) and more and is putting his money where his mouth is an opening a business to sell these systems and install them for you in your vehicles. The investment? $10,000? No. $8,000 ?(typical hybrid additional cost) NO. $6,000? NO! $4,000? Getting close. $2,000??? Yes!!!!! How many miles do you drive a year? @ 20,000 miles/year @ 20 miles per gallon, you will use 1,000 gallons a year of gasoline. If you paid $3.00 per gallon, that is $3000 per year. Well, if you can knock that down by 50%, you'll save $1500 in the first year alone and you'll nearly pay off the system in the FIRST YEAR.
As far as our "INVESTMENT IDEAS" and the AWARD TO THE WINNER from the October 1 meeting held at Bogey's - We'll find out who the winner is unless you go the website http://westporttradersnetwork.blogspot.com to figure it out for yourself. Come here what our group is thinking this month - so far just this year the portfolio is up SIGNIFICANTLY from our picks and pans on stocks, currencies, commodities and more. Come to the meeting and share your wealth of knowledge, opinion and perspective for WE ALL ARE BETTER OFF WHEN WE SHARE!
We would also like to update you on the operation and execution of the "Automated Trading System". Hope you can make the meeting - please contact me to confirm.
In the future, meetings will be done by eVite to manage the email list. I hope you enjoyed this last month's meeting eVite. I invested a few hours to make it happen, but would have saved a LOT of time had I known that eVite can download email lists from your yahoo account. I had re-typed them individually which took HOURS. Oh well.
As far as a SPEAKER for our event - I'm happy to say that I may once again invite Drew Stietzel who WOWED us this summer with his "GAS-BUSTING" presentation on the wonders of GEOTHERMAL-DX which made it very clear to us that there is a way OUT of our demand for "home heating oil" with an investment in copper-tubing in the ground with refridgerant collecting heat in winter or dispersing heat in summer right into the ground. (Side-note: since that meeting the price of oil has dropped $80 per barrel from the $140 area to the $60 area)
WELL GET THIS! This one is even BETTER (I think). Drew has found a way to boost gas mileage on automobiles by 100% (He guarantees 50%) and more and is putting his money where his mouth is an opening a business to sell these systems and install them for you in your vehicles. The investment? $10,000? No. $8,000 ?(typical hybrid additional cost) NO. $6,000? NO! $4,000? Getting close. $2,000??? Yes!!!!! How many miles do you drive a year? @ 20,000 miles/year @ 20 miles per gallon, you will use 1,000 gallons a year of gasoline. If you paid $3.00 per gallon, that is $3000 per year. Well, if you can knock that down by 50%, you'll save $1500 in the first year alone and you'll nearly pay off the system in the FIRST YEAR.
As far as our "INVESTMENT IDEAS" and the AWARD TO THE WINNER from the October 1 meeting held at Bogey's - We'll find out who the winner is unless you go the website http://westporttradersnetwork.blogspot.com to figure it out for yourself. Come here what our group is thinking this month - so far just this year the portfolio is up SIGNIFICANTLY from our picks and pans on stocks, currencies, commodities and more. Come to the meeting and share your wealth of knowledge, opinion and perspective for WE ALL ARE BETTER OFF WHEN WE SHARE!
We would also like to update you on the operation and execution of the "Automated Trading System". Hope you can make the meeting - please contact me to confirm.
In the future, meetings will be done by eVite to manage the email list. I hope you enjoyed this last month's meeting eVite. I invested a few hours to make it happen, but would have saved a LOT of time had I known that eVite can download email lists from your yahoo account. I had re-typed them individually which took HOURS. Oh well.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
EVITE just sent out - NEW MEETING DATE Nov 19, 2008 (next week)
If you aren't on the mailing list, then you wont receive the email about the meeting change of time to next week. Please contact me at twest@compocapital.com and I'll add you to the evite list. I am looking forward to meeting with you all next Wed @ 5:30PM, November 19, 2008 at Bogey's Grille in the Bogart Room upstairs.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Meeting Announcement - Wed, Nov 12 - 5:30PM
Location: Westport, Bogey's Grill & Tap Room, Main Street & Rt 57.
5:30PM - Meet in the bar
6:00PM - Dinner upstairs as we discuss markets, trends, portfolio, and award winner from last month.
5:30PM - Meet in the bar
6:00PM - Dinner upstairs as we discuss markets, trends, portfolio, and award winner from last month.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Oct 1st - Meeting Review -
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4P2Qbq7qqC1UZpy1VImeAw
The group meeting was unique this month, perhaps due to the recent stock market turbulence or perhaps due to a changing schedule which forced us to move the meeting from two weeks ago until October 1st. Our original cast was supported by Greg Pinyan, Mark Juviler, Casey Allen & Tim West with the rest being new members to the monthly meeting process and concept.
The meeting ended up being a discussion of the presentation given by me, Tim West, a year ago where I outlined the bear market that would unfold in the US stock market. The bear market was very much underway at more than a 20% decline, however, after the meeting the carnage accelerated.
Tim discussed the extremely similar personality of the stock market moves from the past to present and how it implied we would fall substantially further. (I'm sensing at this time, however, that the lowest prices may have been seen last Friday, particularly at 3PM, when put volumes showed up in their extremes, coupled with 75+ readings in VIX - for further details - go to http://shorttermtradingideas.blogspot.com )
The meeting also covered questions about the Presidential election: Who do you think will win? (Note that is not the same as "Who do you want to win?"). The group generally believed that Obama would win (as I recall).
Kudos goes to Jim Sullivan for winning last month with his forecast for a drop in the price of crude oil. Jim won with a stunning 5.2R return for his pick, trouncing the next 2 traders by a margin of 2R. Stan Katz came in 2nd with a 3.3R return for his short EuroCurrency and Bob Gifford nailed down a 3.1R return in his Long Home Depot idea. Overall the portfolio was up 2.2% for the month and is up 36% for the year so far. Our largest monthly closing loss was 3.5% back in June and our second worst month was -3.0% in March. Each of the last two losing months was followed by extremely large profitable months. The results exclude leverage assumptions, commissions, slippage and the impact of having actual orders in the marketplace, particularly stop orders.
Either way - the results speak volumes for the diversity of the ideas, the money management principles and the concept that you can make money without incessant amounts of trading and management of positions. I would like to give awards to the best ideas presented at the beginning of the year based a variety of criteria. These awards will hopefully be given at each monthly meeting based on a 1 year holding period assumption. This takes a lot of work, but it may show whether or not we have had skill/luck at picking investments for the longer haul. My intuition has me leaning towards the concept that we can pick up on trends for the 3-month to 6-month time frame. Again, just my intuition here.
Hope to see you all again at our next meeting.
Shall we continue with the 2nd Wednesday of the month again for the next meeting? November 12th, 5:30PM at Bogey's in Westport.
The group meeting was unique this month, perhaps due to the recent stock market turbulence or perhaps due to a changing schedule which forced us to move the meeting from two weeks ago until October 1st. Our original cast was supported by Greg Pinyan, Mark Juviler, Casey Allen & Tim West with the rest being new members to the monthly meeting process and concept.
The meeting ended up being a discussion of the presentation given by me, Tim West, a year ago where I outlined the bear market that would unfold in the US stock market. The bear market was very much underway at more than a 20% decline, however, after the meeting the carnage accelerated.
Tim discussed the extremely similar personality of the stock market moves from the past to present and how it implied we would fall substantially further. (I'm sensing at this time, however, that the lowest prices may have been seen last Friday, particularly at 3PM, when put volumes showed up in their extremes, coupled with 75+ readings in VIX - for further details - go to http://shorttermtradingideas.blogspot.com )
The meeting also covered questions about the Presidential election: Who do you think will win? (Note that is not the same as "Who do you want to win?"). The group generally believed that Obama would win (as I recall).
Kudos goes to Jim Sullivan for winning last month with his forecast for a drop in the price of crude oil. Jim won with a stunning 5.2R return for his pick, trouncing the next 2 traders by a margin of 2R. Stan Katz came in 2nd with a 3.3R return for his short EuroCurrency and Bob Gifford nailed down a 3.1R return in his Long Home Depot idea. Overall the portfolio was up 2.2% for the month and is up 36% for the year so far. Our largest monthly closing loss was 3.5% back in June and our second worst month was -3.0% in March. Each of the last two losing months was followed by extremely large profitable months. The results exclude leverage assumptions, commissions, slippage and the impact of having actual orders in the marketplace, particularly stop orders.
Either way - the results speak volumes for the diversity of the ideas, the money management principles and the concept that you can make money without incessant amounts of trading and management of positions. I would like to give awards to the best ideas presented at the beginning of the year based a variety of criteria. These awards will hopefully be given at each monthly meeting based on a 1 year holding period assumption. This takes a lot of work, but it may show whether or not we have had skill/luck at picking investments for the longer haul. My intuition has me leaning towards the concept that we can pick up on trends for the 3-month to 6-month time frame. Again, just my intuition here.
Hope to see you all again at our next meeting.
Shall we continue with the 2nd Wednesday of the month again for the next meeting? November 12th, 5:30PM at Bogey's in Westport.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
NEXT MEETING OCTOBER 1st, 5:30PM BOGEY'S
I have booked the Bogart Room upstairs at Bogey's for 6pm.
Details to follow:
Tim 10:55AM Thursday, Sep 25, 2008
Details to follow:
Tim 10:55AM Thursday, Sep 25, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
MEETING ANNOUNCEMENT - Aug 27 2008
Greetings WTN Members and Friends,
This week’s meeting is scheduled for today at Bogey’s Grille at the top of Main Street in Westport at 5:30PM. Drinks 5:30PM at the bar then go upstairs to the meeting room at 6:00PM. (Further details enclosed below)
Both Mark Juviler and Casey Allen cannot make the meeting tonight – so we will need someone who can bring a wireless connection to the internet, otherwise we will just have a general meeting and sharing of ideas without supporting charts and graphs. If you could bring a chart of your idea and any supporting materials (one or two copies, preferably 5 or more), then we could proceed that way.
If anyone can make it tonight, please reply so I can let Bogey’s know how many people will be attending. We should figure on having dinner served to us upstairs in the meeting room. We can choose to have a meeting first, then have dinner or have dinner while we have a more casual gathering. Let me know what works for you.
As far as tonight’s picks for the meeting - If you each send info on your pick, then I could pre-load info onto my laptop and bring that with me. That could work. I’d be happy to do that for the group and might save you some time and printing costs.
This is high time for vacations for many of you, so I realize this meeting will be low in attendance. I do hope you all will love the new location and the menu. My neighbor Jim Stablein is the owner of Bogey’s and if you like great American fare like that served at a country club, then you’ll love Bogey’s too.
I’ll miss BobbyQ’s since we have had so many great meetings there since our start last October. Bobby LeRose, the owner of BobbyQ’s and I went to college together at the University of Richmond. So, the next time you go to BobbyQ’s for live music and great barbecue, do thank him for giving us the space to have our meeting. Remember too, that Wednesday night is poker night starting at 8PM at BobbyQ’s too.
As far as future meetings, the agenda for future meetings will be addressed. I do have Glenn Neely lined up for either late September or late October. Visit his website www.neowave.com to get an idea about Glenn and his excellent market forecasting and trading service.
This email address list is not complete, but I hope that everyone knows that you can always check the website to see what is going on.
Overall, there were some BIG WINNERS in this last month’s picks. If you haven’t seen the site yet, then check it out. Otherwise, I will tell you all about it at the informal meeting tonight.
All the best to you and enjoy a great labor day weekend!
Timothy West
This week’s meeting is scheduled for today at Bogey’s Grille at the top of Main Street in Westport at 5:30PM. Drinks 5:30PM at the bar then go upstairs to the meeting room at 6:00PM. (Further details enclosed below)
Both Mark Juviler and Casey Allen cannot make the meeting tonight – so we will need someone who can bring a wireless connection to the internet, otherwise we will just have a general meeting and sharing of ideas without supporting charts and graphs. If you could bring a chart of your idea and any supporting materials (one or two copies, preferably 5 or more), then we could proceed that way.
If anyone can make it tonight, please reply so I can let Bogey’s know how many people will be attending. We should figure on having dinner served to us upstairs in the meeting room. We can choose to have a meeting first, then have dinner or have dinner while we have a more casual gathering. Let me know what works for you.
As far as tonight’s picks for the meeting - If you each send info on your pick, then I could pre-load info onto my laptop and bring that with me. That could work. I’d be happy to do that for the group and might save you some time and printing costs.
This is high time for vacations for many of you, so I realize this meeting will be low in attendance. I do hope you all will love the new location and the menu. My neighbor Jim Stablein is the owner of Bogey’s and if you like great American fare like that served at a country club, then you’ll love Bogey’s too.
I’ll miss BobbyQ’s since we have had so many great meetings there since our start last October. Bobby LeRose, the owner of BobbyQ’s and I went to college together at the University of Richmond. So, the next time you go to BobbyQ’s for live music and great barbecue, do thank him for giving us the space to have our meeting. Remember too, that Wednesday night is poker night starting at 8PM at BobbyQ’s too.
As far as future meetings, the agenda for future meetings will be addressed. I do have Glenn Neely lined up for either late September or late October. Visit his website www.neowave.com to get an idea about Glenn and his excellent market forecasting and trading service.
This email address list is not complete, but I hope that everyone knows that you can always check the website to see what is going on.
Overall, there were some BIG WINNERS in this last month’s picks. If you haven’t seen the site yet, then check it out. Otherwise, I will tell you all about it at the informal meeting tonight.
All the best to you and enjoy a great labor day weekend!
Timothy West
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
July 23rd Meeting Summary / Picks
Our meeting was a round-table discussion format. Tim West made opening welcome remarks, reviewed the MISSION of our group and reviewed the winner from last month was CASEY ALLEN with his short DIA pick. Although he won with 2.8 ranges, he was up nearly 7 ranges at his best. We reviewed the spreadsheet of picks (link is available at the bottom of this post). Tim also paid the winner of last month's contest his prize - congratulations MARK JUVILER for winning in June! The portfolio of ideas as a whole was down just over 3% last month, leaving our group picks up just under 20% since last October's start date. This puts our drawdown at over 5% now, but still an impressive return in my opinion.
We decided on the next meeting to be held on August 20 and to move the location to Bogey's Grill and Tap Room at the top of Main Street at the junction of Rt 57. We can use the upstairs room where it is much quieter. Our round-table discussion went to 7PM and then we went into random discussions of topics on people's minds. Options strategies were mentioned. We discussed ways to save energy, including solar, hybrid automobiles, geothermal, and radiant floor heating. We went around the table and had each person lay out where they thought crude oil would be for the balance of the year. My notes will reflect that many think the top is already in place yet a few left open the idea that prices could go much higher or at least make a new high. Another thought crude could drop under $100 in the near term and potentially hit $75-$80 before rebounding. A trophy was an idea for each winner to posess for a month until the next meeting. A prize for the last-placer was another idea. Whoever is stopped out first, perhaps in the event that we get multiple stop-outs, as we had last month. I'd like to stop putting up money for the prize, although I value the picks and do want to encourage participation and put some pressure on you to find out what you truly feel is your best idea for the month. So if we want to do a prize from now on, we'll have to each kick in some money to make it happen. I'll be banker and collect a per pick prize.
Tim West announced that Glenn Neely is available to speak to our group this fall. He is the author of Mastering Elliott Wave and a legend in the world of logical, rules-based wave-counts. Glenn has added rules to those set out by R.N. Elliott and so popularly marketed by Robert Prechter that Neely labels NEoWave. NEoWave was needed to nail down logical wave counts that are consistent with post-pattern market reaction to justify a wave count. To summarize, Glenn is brilliant and has offered to speak to our group. I'll send around an email describing in more detail and you can visit Neely's website at www.neowave.com Glenn will most likely be speaking at MTA this fall in NYC.
Picks until the next meeting August 20th.
Timothy West; buy sugar using SUV8 futures. I still feel that sugar is cheap relative to corn as I had stated last month. Corn dropped over 20% from our last meeting!
Tony Sanfilippo (although he didn't make the upstairs meeting, he came early to meet with us and to the 5:30pm-6pm downstairs meeting) told me to short XLF using the ultra-short etf because the huge bounce in XLF was overdone and unprecedented. For future portfolios, I'd like to make sure that everyone hears a forecast as presented by the individual and not through me. Which brings up Stan Katz who didn't make the meeting at all. Stan has been shorting the EuroCurrency since last October at every meeting. In his absence, I felt it was important that we include his forecast despite that he wasn't there. I will presume he feels the same for this meeting.
Bob Gifford offered a long in Home Depot as we are in hurrican season.
Randy Shapiro suggested we buy gold as August has historically been the best month for gold.
Mark Juviler felt that the e-mini Dow futures were a good long.
Bill Green believes Macquarie (MIC) is overvalued and vulnerable and should be shorted.
Chris Chessari sees e-mini S&P futures as a good shorting candidate, although he admits he is a very short term trader where 10 minutes is considered a long term investment.
Miriam Bakker also thinks the S&P is a short sale using the SPY etf.
David Evans said there is more damage to Wachovia Bank and UBS. Short these stocks looking for lower prices, is David's advice.
Thanks for contributions from new members David Evans and Bill Green. I consider you members for coming to the meeting with the mission of accomplish the goals of the group: TO help each other to find ways to make money from the market. We welcome you to future meetings and hope you can continue to enlighten us with your insights and perspectives!
Please post any replies to update your position and you can view the spreadsheet for this listing by clicking on the following link: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4P2Qbq7qqC1UZpy1VImeAw
Here's the crude oil forecasts for balance of 2008:
Tim W: 100-130, high is in.
Mark J: new high coming, long term oil is cheap now, Mark encouraged by "high is in" comments by others.
Randy S: 100-130
David E: high is in, demand destruction
Bob G: high is in, long term in question due to laws for drilling offshore
Chris C: 116-145
Casey A: high is in. hold here (125)
Miriam B: dollar new low, crude new high coming
Bill G: 120-160, bear mkt (recession) hurts demand
Jim S: high is in, will break/test 100. Possible 75-80 low. Europe may slow.
We wish you all the best of good fortune and look forward to seeing you AUGUST 20 at the next meeting at Bogey's!
Timothy West
We decided on the next meeting to be held on August 20 and to move the location to Bogey's Grill and Tap Room at the top of Main Street at the junction of Rt 57. We can use the upstairs room where it is much quieter. Our round-table discussion went to 7PM and then we went into random discussions of topics on people's minds. Options strategies were mentioned. We discussed ways to save energy, including solar, hybrid automobiles, geothermal, and radiant floor heating. We went around the table and had each person lay out where they thought crude oil would be for the balance of the year. My notes will reflect that many think the top is already in place yet a few left open the idea that prices could go much higher or at least make a new high. Another thought crude could drop under $100 in the near term and potentially hit $75-$80 before rebounding. A trophy was an idea for each winner to posess for a month until the next meeting. A prize for the last-placer was another idea. Whoever is stopped out first, perhaps in the event that we get multiple stop-outs, as we had last month. I'd like to stop putting up money for the prize, although I value the picks and do want to encourage participation and put some pressure on you to find out what you truly feel is your best idea for the month. So if we want to do a prize from now on, we'll have to each kick in some money to make it happen. I'll be banker and collect a per pick prize.
Tim West announced that Glenn Neely is available to speak to our group this fall. He is the author of Mastering Elliott Wave and a legend in the world of logical, rules-based wave-counts. Glenn has added rules to those set out by R.N. Elliott and so popularly marketed by Robert Prechter that Neely labels NEoWave. NEoWave was needed to nail down logical wave counts that are consistent with post-pattern market reaction to justify a wave count. To summarize, Glenn is brilliant and has offered to speak to our group. I'll send around an email describing in more detail and you can visit Neely's website at www.neowave.com Glenn will most likely be speaking at MTA this fall in NYC.
Picks until the next meeting August 20th.
Timothy West; buy sugar using SUV8 futures. I still feel that sugar is cheap relative to corn as I had stated last month. Corn dropped over 20% from our last meeting!
Tony Sanfilippo (although he didn't make the upstairs meeting, he came early to meet with us and to the 5:30pm-6pm downstairs meeting) told me to short XLF using the ultra-short etf because the huge bounce in XLF was overdone and unprecedented. For future portfolios, I'd like to make sure that everyone hears a forecast as presented by the individual and not through me. Which brings up Stan Katz who didn't make the meeting at all. Stan has been shorting the EuroCurrency since last October at every meeting. In his absence, I felt it was important that we include his forecast despite that he wasn't there. I will presume he feels the same for this meeting.
Bob Gifford offered a long in Home Depot as we are in hurrican season.
Randy Shapiro suggested we buy gold as August has historically been the best month for gold.
Mark Juviler felt that the e-mini Dow futures were a good long.
Bill Green believes Macquarie (MIC) is overvalued and vulnerable and should be shorted.
Chris Chessari sees e-mini S&P futures as a good shorting candidate, although he admits he is a very short term trader where 10 minutes is considered a long term investment.
Miriam Bakker also thinks the S&P is a short sale using the SPY etf.
David Evans said there is more damage to Wachovia Bank and UBS. Short these stocks looking for lower prices, is David's advice.
Thanks for contributions from new members David Evans and Bill Green. I consider you members for coming to the meeting with the mission of accomplish the goals of the group: TO help each other to find ways to make money from the market. We welcome you to future meetings and hope you can continue to enlighten us with your insights and perspectives!
Please post any replies to update your position and you can view the spreadsheet for this listing by clicking on the following link: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4P2Qbq7qqC1UZpy1VImeAw
Here's the crude oil forecasts for balance of 2008:
Tim W: 100-130, high is in.
Mark J: new high coming, long term oil is cheap now, Mark encouraged by "high is in" comments by others.
Randy S: 100-130
David E: high is in, demand destruction
Bob G: high is in, long term in question due to laws for drilling offshore
Chris C: 116-145
Casey A: high is in. hold here (125)
Miriam B: dollar new low, crude new high coming
Bill G: 120-160, bear mkt (recession) hurts demand
Jim S: high is in, will break/test 100. Possible 75-80 low. Europe may slow.
We wish you all the best of good fortune and look forward to seeing you AUGUST 20 at the next meeting at Bogey's!
Timothy West
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Westport "Save Money" "Make Money" Meeting Tonight July 23rd, 5:30PM @ Bobby Q's, Westport
Hello Group Members!
Even if you are not a meeting-member, I consider you are a member in spirit because I care about you and would love for you to be a part of the monthly meetings. By attending and sharing your insights, observations and perspectives on ideas and trends that we discuss, it will benefit you and the group. You will have more confidence in your idea and the group will have an idea it didn't have before. I have also found that a group will make sound and logical decisions that are superior.
To clarify, I formed a group called Westport Traders Network that meets monthly to discuss ways to make money in the markets. Our mission is to help each of us to make money. We focus on a variety of different instruments, from stocks to futures and occasionally penny stocks and even real estate. We even ventured into "saving money" with a focus on geothermal-dx investing from an outside speaker Andrew Stietzel from Our House LLC in Southbury CT. The returns look extra-ordinarily strong with that technology. We also have presented "automated trading systems". I would like everyone to share with each other whatever they are willing so that we can all benefit.
I sure hope you will consider joining us. We have an added benefit that we are creating a hypothetical track record of the ideas we generate at our meetings and the gain on that portfolio is nothing less than stunning. So, we are considering the idea of opening an account to actually take the positions we discuss at our meetings. How does a 25% gain sound to you? What if I told you that was just from last October thru June? I'll release the latest results at the meeting tonight. They might be even better. Are you curious?
I hope you will find our group interesting and that you might consider coming to a meeting if you haven't already. We welcome anyone who is positive in attitude and asks questions. Bring an idea that you think is a good investment for the next month, quarter, or year or more. We hope you enjoy the process and you may find some other ideas that you can profit from.
All the best to you and hope to see you there. If you do plan to attend, RSVP.
Even if you are not a meeting-member, I consider you are a member in spirit because I care about you and would love for you to be a part of the monthly meetings. By attending and sharing your insights, observations and perspectives on ideas and trends that we discuss, it will benefit you and the group. You will have more confidence in your idea and the group will have an idea it didn't have before. I have also found that a group will make sound and logical decisions that are superior.
To clarify, I formed a group called Westport Traders Network that meets monthly to discuss ways to make money in the markets. Our mission is to help each of us to make money. We focus on a variety of different instruments, from stocks to futures and occasionally penny stocks and even real estate. We even ventured into "saving money" with a focus on geothermal-dx investing from an outside speaker Andrew Stietzel from Our House LLC in Southbury CT. The returns look extra-ordinarily strong with that technology. We also have presented "automated trading systems". I would like everyone to share with each other whatever they are willing so that we can all benefit.
I sure hope you will consider joining us. We have an added benefit that we are creating a hypothetical track record of the ideas we generate at our meetings and the gain on that portfolio is nothing less than stunning. So, we are considering the idea of opening an account to actually take the positions we discuss at our meetings. How does a 25% gain sound to you? What if I told you that was just from last October thru June? I'll release the latest results at the meeting tonight. They might be even better. Are you curious?
I hope you will find our group interesting and that you might consider coming to a meeting if you haven't already. We welcome anyone who is positive in attitude and asks questions. Bring an idea that you think is a good investment for the next month, quarter, or year or more. We hope you enjoy the process and you may find some other ideas that you can profit from.
All the best to you and hope to see you there. If you do plan to attend, RSVP.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Meeting Summary & More - June 25, 2008
First, a meeting summary from our Wed, Jun 11th meeting. We had a full house of people interested in Geothermal-DX technology for eliminating the need for heating oil and natural gas for heating/cooling and air conditioning. The investment returns from Geothermal-DX are far beyond what you would ever expect to earn in the stock market with the best available techniques and strategies. Furthermore, for all of us that are concerned about the high prices of energy products these days, it is supremely nice to know that there is something we can do about it and with technology we have NOW. We can indeed reduce our carbon footprint now in ways that are extremely economical. To contact our speaker Drew Steitzel, call 203-733-5161 or email steitzels@aol.com. In a year, I'll guess that the waiting line to install one of these systems will be six months. As an additional follow-up, I went to the drilling site of his Stamford installation and I was very impressed by the crew and picked up additional information which only makes me more confident in the fidelity of the system. Google "geothermal dx" to learn more too.
As far as the performance of the group picks last month, it was a down month of less than 2% utilizing the power of money management. Mark Juviler was the winner with his short Dow Jones Industrials pick and Peter Afif was a very close second-place with his long commodities ETF pick. Congratulations to Mark for winning and to both Mark and Peter for two great picks that yielded > 3 avg true range moves in their favor. We have a new slate of picks that I posted at the website in the spreadsheet link below. Scroll down until you find the spreadsheet link.
Second, a question for you: Would you like to have a meeting on Trading System Development? Stan Katz felt we could have a separate group meeting on this topic. Any thoughts? Third, Mark Juviler and I are hosting a meeting next Tuesday, July 1st on our automated trading system portfolio in Westport. We can send you an invitation to the event separately if you send us an email request to twest@compocapital.com or to mjuviler@compocapital.com. The basic concept is that Mark and I have a system that trades in the Dow, Yen, Gold, Corn and Bond futures that is ready for funding. Come and see a live replay demonstration of this system.
Lastly, our next meeting is July 23, the 4th Wed in July. That is the best meeting date for July. Hope you can make it. Speaker/topic TBA.
Regards,
Timothy West
=========================
I typed the following comment back on June 13 after the group meeting after talking with Stan Katz.
=========================
Idea - Technically based trading decisions can be allowed for the group. In other words, you could devise a system to buy and sell automatically in order to capture a return. The risk would stay the same, you would be stopped out when the loss hit your stop for your % of the account. Last month, for example, we had 9 picks. That means $11,111 risk per trading idea because I want to limit our loss in any 30-day time period to 10% or $100,000 on our account of $1,000,000. The size of the trades would be confinded to 3 ATR's would equal a $11,111 loss. If your trading system was active, then it would require less risk per trade so you wouldn't lose your $11,111 (which is the same as saying 3R or 3 ranges, where R=Ranges or ATR's). If your systems use too large a position size you will get stopped out too fast. If you trade too small, then your return wont be optimal and over the long haul wont make enough money to make it worth your time to follow it. It is paramount to optimally size your trades to maximize your long term return. As far as our next meeting - Stan suggested that we have a systems trading discussion to cover issues related to system trading development, how to design a system, how to overcome all of the many challenges that arise when designing trading systems. Any comments, thoughts or reactions - please let me know by replying here.
June 13, 2008 6:01 AM
As far as the performance of the group picks last month, it was a down month of less than 2% utilizing the power of money management. Mark Juviler was the winner with his short Dow Jones Industrials pick and Peter Afif was a very close second-place with his long commodities ETF pick. Congratulations to Mark for winning and to both Mark and Peter for two great picks that yielded > 3 avg true range moves in their favor. We have a new slate of picks that I posted at the website in the spreadsheet link below. Scroll down until you find the spreadsheet link.
Second, a question for you: Would you like to have a meeting on Trading System Development? Stan Katz felt we could have a separate group meeting on this topic. Any thoughts? Third, Mark Juviler and I are hosting a meeting next Tuesday, July 1st on our automated trading system portfolio in Westport. We can send you an invitation to the event separately if you send us an email request to twest@compocapital.com or to mjuviler@compocapital.com. The basic concept is that Mark and I have a system that trades in the Dow, Yen, Gold, Corn and Bond futures that is ready for funding. Come and see a live replay demonstration of this system.
Lastly, our next meeting is July 23, the 4th Wed in July. That is the best meeting date for July. Hope you can make it. Speaker/topic TBA.
Regards,
Timothy West
=========================
I typed the following comment back on June 13 after the group meeting after talking with Stan Katz.
=========================
Idea - Technically based trading decisions can be allowed for the group. In other words, you could devise a system to buy and sell automatically in order to capture a return. The risk would stay the same, you would be stopped out when the loss hit your stop for your % of the account. Last month, for example, we had 9 picks. That means $11,111 risk per trading idea because I want to limit our loss in any 30-day time period to 10% or $100,000 on our account of $1,000,000. The size of the trades would be confinded to 3 ATR's would equal a $11,111 loss. If your trading system was active, then it would require less risk per trade so you wouldn't lose your $11,111 (which is the same as saying 3R or 3 ranges, where R=Ranges or ATR's). If your systems use too large a position size you will get stopped out too fast. If you trade too small, then your return wont be optimal and over the long haul wont make enough money to make it worth your time to follow it. It is paramount to optimally size your trades to maximize your long term return. As far as our next meeting - Stan suggested that we have a systems trading discussion to cover issues related to system trading development, how to design a system, how to overcome all of the many challenges that arise when designing trading systems. Any comments, thoughts or reactions - please let me know by replying here.
June 13, 2008 6:01 AM
Monday, June 9, 2008
MEETING ANNOUNCEMENT for Wed, Jun 11, 2008, 5:30PM at BobbyQ's, Westport
Greetings;
Members, guests and friends: We have a unique meeting this Wednesday at 5:30PM. We have a number of items to follow up on from our last meeting on May 8th and a special guest speaker, Drew Stietzel who will enlighten us on GEOTHERMAL ENERGY for our homes. At our last meeting I felt it was an urgent opportunity for us to explore and research into alternative energy investments, companies and strategies. After speaking at length with Drew and doing some online research on DX-Geothermal, it was clear to me that we should have Drew come and speak to our group based on the what appears to be a very solid investment returns from geothermal. Can you imagine no longer burning heating oil or natural gas in your home for hot water and heating needs? You could get rid of your heating oil deliveries forever. The investment typically required to install a Geothermal system has always tended toward $40k-$50k, but Drew has a system which is under $30k for a simple installation. The potential return? What if you didn't have to buy 2000 gallons of heating oil at $4.00+ per gallon this winter? That's an energy bill of $8,000 you could eliminate. Electricity is still required to run the system and the system will increase your electric bill. However, I am hopeful that many of you will be interested to find out more about this system so bring your questions and creative minds and we will see what we can learn from Drew. We have quite a few people on this email list that are in the building and real estate trade, from bankers (to finance systems) to insurance agents, to builders and brokers (geothermal homes might sell faster in a slow market) and plenty of people that I think will be interested to learn more from someone experienced in the technology who is installing systems today. We may in fact need to have a larger venue to accept everyone who is interested to hear, so do reply so I can confirm that you are coming.
I realize this announcement is different from our past meetings, however, the purpose of the group, the mission, is to find ways to make money and the way I see it is that saving money is the same or better than making money. When you consider that you pay your energy bills with after-tax dollars, it means the returns on making a Geothermal investment are just that much higher. When you can earn a taxable equivalent return of 40% on your dollar, every year for many years to come, then we should all be listening and asking questions.
Mark Juviler and I have also been diligently expanding our A.T.S. (Automated Trading System) to include more markets and have an update to provide on our mission to build a portfolio of systems and markets.
Last month we also discussed the idea of opening an actual account at a brokerage firm in order to capitalize on the returns we have made hypothetically from our group meeting ideas. The returns from inception last October are simply too incredible not to do something about it. The portfolio of ideas was up more than 25% in 7 months with less than a 5% drawdown. We can talk further about this idea and explore who is interested in pursuing this idea further. These returns do show the POWER of the concept that many perspectives can come together at our meetings to deliver unique and solid returns.
Please reply ASAP to me Timothy West at this email tim_wst@yahoo.com and to Mark Juviler mjuviler@compocapital.com so we know you are coming.
Thank you and see you Wednesday. Remember: Bring your stock, currency, options, commodity strategy with you and be prepared to discuss to the best of your ability.
Best regards,
Tim West
Members, guests and friends: We have a unique meeting this Wednesday at 5:30PM. We have a number of items to follow up on from our last meeting on May 8th and a special guest speaker, Drew Stietzel who will enlighten us on GEOTHERMAL ENERGY for our homes. At our last meeting I felt it was an urgent opportunity for us to explore and research into alternative energy investments, companies and strategies. After speaking at length with Drew and doing some online research on DX-Geothermal, it was clear to me that we should have Drew come and speak to our group based on the what appears to be a very solid investment returns from geothermal. Can you imagine no longer burning heating oil or natural gas in your home for hot water and heating needs? You could get rid of your heating oil deliveries forever. The investment typically required to install a Geothermal system has always tended toward $40k-$50k, but Drew has a system which is under $30k for a simple installation. The potential return? What if you didn't have to buy 2000 gallons of heating oil at $4.00+ per gallon this winter? That's an energy bill of $8,000 you could eliminate. Electricity is still required to run the system and the system will increase your electric bill. However, I am hopeful that many of you will be interested to find out more about this system so bring your questions and creative minds and we will see what we can learn from Drew. We have quite a few people on this email list that are in the building and real estate trade, from bankers (to finance systems) to insurance agents, to builders and brokers (geothermal homes might sell faster in a slow market) and plenty of people that I think will be interested to learn more from someone experienced in the technology who is installing systems today. We may in fact need to have a larger venue to accept everyone who is interested to hear, so do reply so I can confirm that you are coming.
I realize this announcement is different from our past meetings, however, the purpose of the group, the mission, is to find ways to make money and the way I see it is that saving money is the same or better than making money. When you consider that you pay your energy bills with after-tax dollars, it means the returns on making a Geothermal investment are just that much higher. When you can earn a taxable equivalent return of 40% on your dollar, every year for many years to come, then we should all be listening and asking questions.
Mark Juviler and I have also been diligently expanding our A.T.S. (Automated Trading System) to include more markets and have an update to provide on our mission to build a portfolio of systems and markets.
Last month we also discussed the idea of opening an actual account at a brokerage firm in order to capitalize on the returns we have made hypothetically from our group meeting ideas. The returns from inception last October are simply too incredible not to do something about it. The portfolio of ideas was up more than 25% in 7 months with less than a 5% drawdown. We can talk further about this idea and explore who is interested in pursuing this idea further. These returns do show the POWER of the concept that many perspectives can come together at our meetings to deliver unique and solid returns.
Please reply ASAP to me Timothy West at this email tim_wst@yahoo.com and to Mark Juviler mjuviler@compocapital.com so we know you are coming.
Thank you and see you Wednesday. Remember: Bring your stock, currency, options, commodity strategy with you and be prepared to discuss to the best of your ability.
Best regards,
Tim West
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Wednesday, May 14th 2008, Meeting Summary
Joe Bocuzzi wins the contest again and wins his 2nd month in a row! Congratulations Joe. The meeting attendees were: Tim West, Mark Juviler, Joe Bocuzzi, Pamela Grayson, Peter Afif, Stan Katz, and Ilene.
Notable news is that our portfolio of ideas, when money management principles are applied, yielded north of a 10% gain for the month. This performance, when added to our previous performance, put our 'hypothetical portfolio' up 25% with a maximum drawdown of less than 5% just since early October. I trust you are all amazed and wonder how we can capture this return in a real account.
The obvious questions are: 1. How do we structure ourselves. 2. How much capital would we need in order to finance the proper position sizes. 3. How much would it cost. 4. What are the risks. 5. Who would perform all the tasks. 6. How would we make decisions. 7. How much time is needed.
I would have liked to post the ideas from the meeting right away, but I don't want our ideas out for general circulation, as they are valuable so I would like to distribute them by email to our group or find a way to get passwords and login codes so you can get information. This may sound complicated and expensive, and it is. But our ideas are valuable and there is no sense giving them away when they are clearly so profitable.
As far as a meeting location goes, we didn't have internet access at this last meeting, which was a problem given that Mark Juviler and I (Tim West) invested a lot of time to assure we have a wireless network available to us at BobbyQ's. If someone has a wireless air-card, then do bring it for the next meeting please. Otherwise, we may need to find a more suitable location where we have a quieter location with more privacy. I am considering a change of location very seriously and will contact you all shortly about the details.
If there is a presentation that anyone has for the group, then email me at tim_wst@yahoo.com and let me know. Obviously, my presentation on QCharts software wasn't possible without an internet connection. So, with a new location or a more reliable internet connection, we will be able to have more data to back-up our discussions, especially relating to "When" to enter an investment, when to exit and various key levels of support or resistance in the historical price levels of the stock or commodity. We all look forward to having that functionality again at the next meeting.
Ideas generated by the group will be posted to the spreadsheet soon, which is available by clicking on the link below entitled "spreadsheet".
Our next meeting will be the 2nd Wednesday of June. which is June 11th. The meeting will start at 5:30PM and we will meet at the bar of BobbyQ's (pending a new location).
Notable news is that our portfolio of ideas, when money management principles are applied, yielded north of a 10% gain for the month. This performance, when added to our previous performance, put our 'hypothetical portfolio' up 25% with a maximum drawdown of less than 5% just since early October. I trust you are all amazed and wonder how we can capture this return in a real account.
The obvious questions are: 1. How do we structure ourselves. 2. How much capital would we need in order to finance the proper position sizes. 3. How much would it cost. 4. What are the risks. 5. Who would perform all the tasks. 6. How would we make decisions. 7. How much time is needed.
I would have liked to post the ideas from the meeting right away, but I don't want our ideas out for general circulation, as they are valuable so I would like to distribute them by email to our group or find a way to get passwords and login codes so you can get information. This may sound complicated and expensive, and it is. But our ideas are valuable and there is no sense giving them away when they are clearly so profitable.
As far as a meeting location goes, we didn't have internet access at this last meeting, which was a problem given that Mark Juviler and I (Tim West) invested a lot of time to assure we have a wireless network available to us at BobbyQ's. If someone has a wireless air-card, then do bring it for the next meeting please. Otherwise, we may need to find a more suitable location where we have a quieter location with more privacy. I am considering a change of location very seriously and will contact you all shortly about the details.
If there is a presentation that anyone has for the group, then email me at tim_wst@yahoo.com and let me know. Obviously, my presentation on QCharts software wasn't possible without an internet connection. So, with a new location or a more reliable internet connection, we will be able to have more data to back-up our discussions, especially relating to "When" to enter an investment, when to exit and various key levels of support or resistance in the historical price levels of the stock or commodity. We all look forward to having that functionality again at the next meeting.
Ideas generated by the group will be posted to the spreadsheet soon, which is available by clicking on the link below entitled "spreadsheet".
Our next meeting will be the 2nd Wednesday of June. which is June 11th. The meeting will start at 5:30PM and we will meet at the bar of BobbyQ's (pending a new location).
Monday, April 21, 2008
April 9, 2008 Meeting Summary
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4P2Qbq7qqC1UZpy1VImeAw
Click on the link above to see the latest group picks from our meeting Wednesday, April 9, 2008.
Click on the link above to see the latest group picks from our meeting Wednesday, April 9, 2008.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Sample Presentation
http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=ddv24pvz_19bp8ccm
Here is a quick slideshow I just put together on Google Docs - for future reference.
Here is a quick slideshow I just put together on Google Docs - for future reference.
Monthly Picks Spreadsheet Available from Google Doc's
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4P2Qbq7qqC1UZpy1VImeAw
WHAT - HOW MUCH - AND WHEN:
Here is the spreadsheet of the picks from the group for January, February and March. It shows all the information you need to have to make the calculations of returns, risk and the overall return of the picks. We can discuss the money management routines involved in this "position sizing technique". It is one thing to know "WHAT" to buy, but what we can all learn is that it is more important to know "HOW MUCH" to trade and "WHEN TO EXIT".
Google has a great program that allows you to use MS Word, MS Excel and MS Presentation software directly from their website. It also allows you to store the documents online.
I'll put together a group site so you can all access documents and update them.
WHAT - HOW MUCH - AND WHEN:
Here is the spreadsheet of the picks from the group for January, February and March. It shows all the information you need to have to make the calculations of returns, risk and the overall return of the picks. We can discuss the money management routines involved in this "position sizing technique". It is one thing to know "WHAT" to buy, but what we can all learn is that it is more important to know "HOW MUCH" to trade and "WHEN TO EXIT".
Google has a great program that allows you to use MS Word, MS Excel and MS Presentation software directly from their website. It also allows you to store the documents online.
I'll put together a group site so you can all access documents and update them.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
ETF CORRELATION CALCULATOR !
http://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/
Here is a handy tool to find an ETF that has correlated the closest to a stock that you are following. Type in the symbol and it will give you the ETF's ranked according to correlation coefficient on a 6 month, 1 year or 3 year time frame. Additionally, you can find an ETF that has a negative correlation - that way you can buy that fund to hedge your stock instead of selling short an ETF.
We should discuss the arbitrage opportunities that are present between the movements of these various, yet highly similar funds and futures contracts.
Timothy West April 2, 2008 9:28AM (updated link info on Sep 8, 2009)
Here is a handy tool to find an ETF that has correlated the closest to a stock that you are following. Type in the symbol and it will give you the ETF's ranked according to correlation coefficient on a 6 month, 1 year or 3 year time frame. Additionally, you can find an ETF that has a negative correlation - that way you can buy that fund to hedge your stock instead of selling short an ETF.
We should discuss the arbitrage opportunities that are present between the movements of these various, yet highly similar funds and futures contracts.
Timothy West April 2, 2008 9:28AM (updated link info on Sep 8, 2009)
Thursday, March 13, 2008
March to April Contest Picks
The meeting last night March 12, 2008 was a round-table success. Many ideas were shared in depth and others brought up many questions. The group picks using money management, as discussed last night, have been working very well. Remember, the goal is not to be right, but to make money and that involves cutting your losing positions. If you'd like to add insight into your pick for the month, then click on the "post comment" button below. Let's hope we can keep delivering 15% returns with less than a 1% monthly drawdown like we have in the six months since October. I'll post the 11-day average true range soon.
Jim McCarthy, Long OI
Mike Gallager, Short DIA
Suzy Dinelli, No Picks
Arnold Ellison, Short FXI & Long AUY
John Wilburn, Long AEGG
Miriam Bakker, Short FXE & Short oil (USO) & Short SLV
Joe Boccuzzi, Long SPY
*Peter Afif, *Long TMA & Long AET
Bob Gifford, Short QQQQQ via Long on QID
Stan Katz, Short EUE/USD
Herb Poder, Long GSG
Mark Juviler, Short Soy Beans & Short DIA & Long SCSS
Tim West, Short TLT
Pamela, No Picks
*Previous contest winner for Feb-Mar'08 with DBA Long
Jim McCarthy, Long OI
Mike Gallager, Short DIA
Suzy Dinelli, No Picks
Arnold Ellison, Short FXI & Long AUY
John Wilburn, Long AEGG
Miriam Bakker, Short FXE & Short oil (USO) & Short SLV
Joe Boccuzzi, Long SPY
*Peter Afif, *Long TMA & Long AET
Bob Gifford, Short QQQQQ via Long on QID
Stan Katz, Short EUE/USD
Herb Poder, Long GSG
Mark Juviler, Short Soy Beans & Short DIA & Long SCSS
Tim West, Short TLT
Pamela, No Picks
*Previous contest winner for Feb-Mar'08 with DBA Long
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
MEETING ANNOUNCEMENT
(This is an encore version of the email sent yesterday, March 4)
Greetings,
I know many of you are eager to get together and I wanted to remind you to set our meeting on your calendar for next Wednesday.
What I would like to propose for a meeting agenda is for me to jump into the pulpit and launch into a review of the "Market Technicians Association" Annual Meeting which I attended in Tampa Florida at the beautiful Don Cesar Hotel right at the beach. There were a number of interesting points to highlight and think this is a great venue to review my two-day excursion. I suggest highly that you all go next year as it is a great way to meet people in the industry.
I would also love to show you QCharts and the power that the software has to both find and track futures and stocks. This alone could be an hour of material depending on what you are all interested in reviewing.
Keep in mind that I am now enrolled in the CFP course - so my time is more limited than before.
Of course, we will also be reviewing the ideas of group members both at the meeting and after the meeting while we sit down to a dinner where more extensive conversations can occur. The delicious menu at BobbyQ's is 2nd to none in the area so swing by and throw your hat in the ring.
I'm considering a bigger, 1-year (or end of year) prize for best market/directional call for the calendar year. Not exactly sure how to design this contest, but I like the 1-month forecasts, but realize that it is more realistic and practical to include longer time horizons. Realistically, we want to generate long-term capital gains on assets held longer than 1-year (and 1-day, to be exact).
I met with someone who would be a great addition to the group and he was interested in having a full group discusion on the gold market to include all of the bullish and bearish fundamentals of the gold market. Basically, let's cover everything we can think of on the gold market to make a case one way or the other for the outlook for gold. I personally LOVE this idea and would love to hear any reaction at all. All of us collectively could gather many reports, studies, projections of analysts, etc to pull together a "Ben Franklin" pros/cons list of reasons to go long or short gold.
As many of you know, my kick-off presentation back in October, (which was a re-do of my 2004 and 2002 presentations on gold, the dollar, real estate, stocks, inflation, wars, impeachment, presidential elections, etc....) might be worth re-visiting as well at the meeting to see which, if any, of the concepts are still at play and merit closer attention: Do any of you remember the main points or any of my presentation?
Well, we'll see you next Wednesday and do let me know if you can make it as we might need a bigger room if all of you are coming!
Best regards,
Tim West
BIG NOTE HERE: Please send all replies to tim_wst@yahoo.com by replying to this email. If you know of anyone interested in coming to the meeting, do ask them to contact me too to make sure there is room for everyone comfortably.
Greetings,
I know many of you are eager to get together and I wanted to remind you to set our meeting on your calendar for next Wednesday.
What I would like to propose for a meeting agenda is for me to jump into the pulpit and launch into a review of the "Market Technicians Association" Annual Meeting which I attended in Tampa Florida at the beautiful Don Cesar Hotel right at the beach. There were a number of interesting points to highlight and think this is a great venue to review my two-day excursion. I suggest highly that you all go next year as it is a great way to meet people in the industry.
I would also love to show you QCharts and the power that the software has to both find and track futures and stocks. This alone could be an hour of material depending on what you are all interested in reviewing.
Keep in mind that I am now enrolled in the CFP course - so my time is more limited than before.
Of course, we will also be reviewing the ideas of group members both at the meeting and after the meeting while we sit down to a dinner where more extensive conversations can occur. The delicious menu at BobbyQ's is 2nd to none in the area so swing by and throw your hat in the ring.
I'm considering a bigger, 1-year (or end of year) prize for best market/directional call for the calendar year. Not exactly sure how to design this contest, but I like the 1-month forecasts, but realize that it is more realistic and practical to include longer time horizons. Realistically, we want to generate long-term capital gains on assets held longer than 1-year (and 1-day, to be exact).
I met with someone who would be a great addition to the group and he was interested in having a full group discusion on the gold market to include all of the bullish and bearish fundamentals of the gold market. Basically, let's cover everything we can think of on the gold market to make a case one way or the other for the outlook for gold. I personally LOVE this idea and would love to hear any reaction at all. All of us collectively could gather many reports, studies, projections of analysts, etc to pull together a "Ben Franklin" pros/cons list of reasons to go long or short gold.
As many of you know, my kick-off presentation back in October, (which was a re-do of my 2004 and 2002 presentations on gold, the dollar, real estate, stocks, inflation, wars, impeachment, presidential elections, etc....) might be worth re-visiting as well at the meeting to see which, if any, of the concepts are still at play and merit closer attention: Do any of you remember the main points or any of my presentation?
Well, we'll see you next Wednesday and do let me know if you can make it as we might need a bigger room if all of you are coming!
Best regards,
Tim West
BIG NOTE HERE: Please send all replies to tim_wst@yahoo.com by replying to this email. If you know of anyone interested in coming to the meeting, do ask them to contact me too to make sure there is room for everyone comfortably.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
February 13th 2008 Picks
Thank you Peter for collecting the data from the meeting:
From: Peter Afif pafif@aol.com
To: twest@compocapital.com
Sent: Wed, 13 Feb 2008 10:30 pm
Subject: Group Meeting Feb. 13, 2008
Picks for the month,
David Brandman: Long AVNX
Joe Bocuzzi: Long DSX
Mike Gallagher: Short oil using USO
Bob Gifford: Short QQQQ using QID
Stan Katz: Long Dollar using EUR/USD (forex)
Mark Juviler: Short Soy Beans
Peter Afif: Long DBA
From: Peter Afif pafif@aol.com
To: twest@compocapital.com
Sent: Wed, 13 Feb 2008 10:30 pm
Subject: Group Meeting Feb. 13, 2008
Picks for the month,
David Brandman: Long AVNX
Joe Bocuzzi: Long DSX
Mike Gallagher: Short oil using USO
Bob Gifford: Short QQQQ using QID
Stan Katz: Long Dollar using EUR/USD (forex)
Mark Juviler: Short Soy Beans
Peter Afif: Long DBA
Monday, February 11, 2008
Wed, Feb 13, 2008 Meeting at Bobby Q's
The meeting is on for this Wednesday, Feb 13, 2008.
Arrive at 5:30PM.
Informal meeting at 6:00PM.
Mark Juviler and David Brandman will host the meeting this month.
After David's 2nd win (if ETFC holds its 100% gain through Wed's close), he and Mark will guide the group through our regular session of reviewing the past months comments and ideas to see how events transpired. Be ready to provide your idea for a market, stock or trend for the meeting. The past meetings have been extremely interesting from the standpoint that we all have many unique perspectives and view a variety of markets for possible trades. You can pre-construct your trade any way you want, even post updates to your idea at the site.
In the past month, we had one idea closed out by a formal email to me. So, that is always an option as well. In the future, we can explore options trades too as a way of defining risk.
As far as last months ideas and how to construct a portfolio out of those ideas - I hope you see how there are different ways to "size" the trades: by volatitility (11-day average true range) or by capital or some combination. Some may consider "beta-sizing" a position. Also, how do you stop out of a losing trade. Furthermore, you can "exit at a pre-defined R-profit" if you would like. So far we have seen 6R winning ideas on several occasions and one 8R profit. That seems to be the extent of a move in one month so far.
Let's all thank Mark for the laptop with wireless internet capability. If we didn't have access to the internet, then it would be necessary for you to print out enough copies of your idea so everyone could look at it and review it. Then I could scan some of the ideas and post them to the site. I will consider doing that for next time.
Please consider setting up the next meeting for the 2nd Wed of March.
Poker starts at 8:00PM so do your best to exit the room before 8PM.
Happy Trading!
Timothy West
Arrive at 5:30PM.
Informal meeting at 6:00PM.
Mark Juviler and David Brandman will host the meeting this month.
After David's 2nd win (if ETFC holds its 100% gain through Wed's close), he and Mark will guide the group through our regular session of reviewing the past months comments and ideas to see how events transpired. Be ready to provide your idea for a market, stock or trend for the meeting. The past meetings have been extremely interesting from the standpoint that we all have many unique perspectives and view a variety of markets for possible trades. You can pre-construct your trade any way you want, even post updates to your idea at the site.
In the past month, we had one idea closed out by a formal email to me. So, that is always an option as well. In the future, we can explore options trades too as a way of defining risk.
As far as last months ideas and how to construct a portfolio out of those ideas - I hope you see how there are different ways to "size" the trades: by volatitility (11-day average true range) or by capital or some combination. Some may consider "beta-sizing" a position. Also, how do you stop out of a losing trade. Furthermore, you can "exit at a pre-defined R-profit" if you would like. So far we have seen 6R winning ideas on several occasions and one 8R profit. That seems to be the extent of a move in one month so far.
Let's all thank Mark for the laptop with wireless internet capability. If we didn't have access to the internet, then it would be necessary for you to print out enough copies of your idea so everyone could look at it and review it. Then I could scan some of the ideas and post them to the site. I will consider doing that for next time.
Please consider setting up the next meeting for the 2nd Wed of March.
Poker starts at 8:00PM so do your best to exit the room before 8PM.
Happy Trading!
Timothy West
Friday, January 11, 2008
CONTEST
Mark Juviler - Short DIA -
Casey Allen - Long DIA - 2.07 avg range (14-day)
David Brandman - Long ETFC - open 2.38, 0.37 avg rg.
Randy Shapiro - Long Gold - long GLD - 86.42 open Jan 10th, 1.37 avg rg. Feb Gold crossed $900 Jan 11, GLD at 88.76. Entry therefore 88.76. If definition of "cross" is different, perhaps on a closing basis, then I can adjust, for now GLD only touched over $900 based on Feb futures.
Ernie Arnow - Buy POT - 135.16, avg rg 7.27.
John Wellbourne - Buy AEGG - 0.72 open/offering price, avg rg 0.13.
Jim McCarthy - Buy Crude Oil = USO - down 50c from 75.25 = 74.75 entry. 1.91 avg rg.
Herb - Buy Natural Gas = UNG - 39.25 open, 1.14 avg rg.
Rolf Olson - Buy MBIA = MBI. Open 12.99, avg rg 2.73. (Due to the extremely large average range = high risk = In order to risk $8500 in this stock, we only need to buy 3100 shares (8500/2.73 = 314 shs) or $43,000 (4.3% of portfolio). But we will discuss allocating 8.5% of portfolio as well as the much smaller 4.3% risk-adjusted portfolio position size.)
Peter Afif - Buy DBA (Commodity ETF) - 34.71 entry, 0.65 avg rg.
Ken McCue - Buy SPY on Jan 22. Avg rg will be reported at that time.
Tim West - Sell Short TLT - 94.87 entry. Avg rg 0.93.
-----------------------------------------------------
For position size, divide $8,500 risk per position by three times the average daily range. We do this so that our 12 positions have a total risk of 10% of our $1,000,000 portfolio. I'll use an excel spreadsheet to enter this data so you can see the position sizes.
-----------------------------------------------------
DIA -
DIA - 2.07 avg range - no position
Long ETFC - open 2.38, 0.37 a.r. = $8,500/(0.37*3) = 7657 shs = $18,225 (2% capital)
Long GLD - 1.37 avg rg. 88.76 = $8,500/(1.37*3) = 2068 shs = $183,566 (18% capital)
Long POT - 135.16, avg rg 7.27 = $8,500/(7.27*3) = 389 shs = $52,675 (5% capital)
Long AEGG - 0.72 open/offering price, avg rg 0.13. = $8,500/(.13*3) = 21794 shs = $15,692 (2% capital)
Long Crude Oil = USO - down 50c from 75.25 = 74.75 entry. 1.91 avg rg. = $8,500/(1.91*3) = 1483 shs = $110,885 (11% capital)
Long Natural Gas = UNG - 39.25 open, 1.14 avg rg. = $8,500/(1.14*3) = 2485 shs = $97,551 (10% capital)
Long MBIA = MBI. Open 12.99, avg rg 2.73. = 1037 shs = $13,481 (1% capital)
Long DBA = 34.71 entry, 0.65 avg rg. = $8,500/(.65*3) = 4358 shs = $151,300 (15% capital)
Buy SPY on Jan 22. Avg rg will be reported at that time.
Short TLT - 94.87 entry. Avg rg 0.93. = $8,500/(.93*3) = 3046 shs = $289,030 (29% capital).
-------------------------------
All summed up - we have 93% of capital contributed and we have only 9 of 12 positions on as 2 offset each other and the last gets put on January 22.
==========================================================
Now all of these calculations might make you think I have lost my mind, so I will also put the portfolio together utilizing equal capital per position and we'll see the difference. The key here is that volatility drives position size. If volatility reduces in each position, then position size can increase. If volatility increases, then position size should decrease. We will only hold a static position for this exercise.
======================
Comments? Questions?
Casey Allen - Long DIA - 2.07 avg range (14-day)
David Brandman - Long ETFC - open 2.38, 0.37 avg rg.
Randy Shapiro - Long Gold - long GLD - 86.42 open Jan 10th, 1.37 avg rg. Feb Gold crossed $900 Jan 11, GLD at 88.76. Entry therefore 88.76. If definition of "cross" is different, perhaps on a closing basis, then I can adjust, for now GLD only touched over $900 based on Feb futures.
Ernie Arnow - Buy POT - 135.16, avg rg 7.27.
John Wellbourne - Buy AEGG - 0.72 open/offering price, avg rg 0.13.
Jim McCarthy - Buy Crude Oil = USO - down 50c from 75.25 = 74.75 entry. 1.91 avg rg.
Herb - Buy Natural Gas = UNG - 39.25 open, 1.14 avg rg.
Rolf Olson - Buy MBIA = MBI. Open 12.99, avg rg 2.73. (Due to the extremely large average range = high risk = In order to risk $8500 in this stock, we only need to buy 3100 shares (8500/2.73 = 314 shs) or $43,000 (4.3% of portfolio). But we will discuss allocating 8.5% of portfolio as well as the much smaller 4.3% risk-adjusted portfolio position size.)
Peter Afif - Buy DBA (Commodity ETF) - 34.71 entry, 0.65 avg rg.
Ken McCue - Buy SPY on Jan 22. Avg rg will be reported at that time.
Tim West - Sell Short TLT - 94.87 entry. Avg rg 0.93.
-----------------------------------------------------
For position size, divide $8,500 risk per position by three times the average daily range. We do this so that our 12 positions have a total risk of 10% of our $1,000,000 portfolio. I'll use an excel spreadsheet to enter this data so you can see the position sizes.
-----------------------------------------------------
DIA -
DIA - 2.07 avg range - no position
Long ETFC - open 2.38, 0.37 a.r. = $8,500/(0.37*3) = 7657 shs = $18,225 (2% capital)
Long GLD - 1.37 avg rg. 88.76 = $8,500/(1.37*3) = 2068 shs = $183,566 (18% capital)
Long POT - 135.16, avg rg 7.27 = $8,500/(7.27*3) = 389 shs = $52,675 (5% capital)
Long AEGG - 0.72 open/offering price, avg rg 0.13. = $8,500/(.13*3) = 21794 shs = $15,692 (2% capital)
Long Crude Oil = USO - down 50c from 75.25 = 74.75 entry. 1.91 avg rg. = $8,500/(1.91*3) = 1483 shs = $110,885 (11% capital)
Long Natural Gas = UNG - 39.25 open, 1.14 avg rg. = $8,500/(1.14*3) = 2485 shs = $97,551 (10% capital)
Long MBIA = MBI. Open 12.99, avg rg 2.73. = 1037 shs = $13,481 (1% capital)
Long DBA = 34.71 entry, 0.65 avg rg. = $8,500/(.65*3) = 4358 shs = $151,300 (15% capital)
Buy SPY on Jan 22. Avg rg will be reported at that time.
Short TLT - 94.87 entry. Avg rg 0.93. = $8,500/(.93*3) = 3046 shs = $289,030 (29% capital).
-------------------------------
All summed up - we have 93% of capital contributed and we have only 9 of 12 positions on as 2 offset each other and the last gets put on January 22.
==========================================================
Now all of these calculations might make you think I have lost my mind, so I will also put the portfolio together utilizing equal capital per position and we'll see the difference. The key here is that volatility drives position size. If volatility reduces in each position, then position size can increase. If volatility increases, then position size should decrease. We will only hold a static position for this exercise.
======================
Comments? Questions?
Next Meeting - Wed, Feb 13th - BobbyQ's Westport
Greetings: We had another great meeting and discussed a variety of ideas from macro-economic to industry-trends to individual stock selections. Mark Juviler presented for the last 30 minutes of the meeting (we ran out of time at 8PM and were booted out by the poker players eager to throw their money on the table). Mark presented on "How to design a trading system" and showed the three month results of one intraday trading system in the Dow Jones e-mini futures. Six of us stayed to have dinner and enjoyed a delicious variety of BobbyQ's finest meals.
Thank you everyone for your participation and I think that this month will be very interesting to see how our "Round-Table" ideas shape up.
Here are the guesses:
Mark Juviler - Short the DJIA - no reason discussed.
Casey Allen - Long the DJIA - market is oversold and due for a rally.
David Brandman - Long ETFC (E-Trade Financial Group) - They have cleared off $3 billion from their balance sheet.
Randy Shapiro - Buy Gold - based on front month Feb futures, buy on a cross of $900 OR on a drop back to $850. Risk $30 if buy at $850.
Ernie Arnow - Buy POT (Potash Corp) - It takes five years to develop a mine and they have the biggest mine operating now.
John Wellbourne - Buy AEGG (American Energy Group) - [If we had a poll from last meeting, then John would have won the contest with the gain in AEGG from last meeting to this meeting.] John updated us on the news on AEGG and what news would need to hit in order for the stock to advance. If the company gets a "reserve report" then it would be ready for a big move up.
Jim McCarthy - Crude Oil has been advancing on bearish news. This is bullish. Buy Crude Oil. 95.00 last basis March. Buy a drop of 50c.
Herb - Buy Natural Gas. Natural gas has lagged the rally in crude oil. (UNG is the natural gas e.t.f. that buys and holds various futures contracts) (USO is a crude oil e.t.f. that holds crude oil futures contracts)
Rolf Olson - Buy MBI (MBIA - Municipal Bond Insurance) - "I'm a sucker for catching a falling knife and I believe you should buy the news and sell the news. " With MBI in the news lately and the stock down from 76 to 13, there is an opportunity to buy. They cut their dividend to save $80 million and they have a $1 Billion line of credit established. Their goal is to maintain their triple-A rating. They have a bond issue that will take precendence over all other bonds issued. Also, Marty Whitman of the Third Avenue Value Fund is buying the stock. NOTE: Most responses/questions revolved around "Why not wait for the stock to bottom before buying?" or "Why not wait until the price moves back up over $20/sh?". Response: Rolf, feel free to post your reply to this question here.
Peter Afif - Buy DBA (Commodity e.t.f.) - Global warming is causing the price of food to advance at a time when we have a foolish policy in place to encourage corn consumption. Buy commodities.
Ken McCue - Buy SP500 on January 22nd close. Cycles are pointing lower until then and a low risk buy may present itself at that time.
Tim West - Sell Short Long Term Treasury Bonds - (use TLT for stock accounts, or USH8 for futures traders). The price of gold and the price of bonds generally do not move together but they are now. They are both benefitting from the move to "safe" instruments. However, the central banks have been injecting massive amounts of liquidity (over $2 trillion) into the system and this will turn into an inflationary spiral in the not-to-distant future. M3 is growing 16% yoy while the M2 is only showing 6%-7% annual growth. Inflation is likely running at 6%-9% and not the low 3% they are reporting right now. Interest rates will likely start rising sharply once people stop lending their money at these extraordinarily low, negative-real-rates of return. Gold is telling you to sell out of bonds - it is a matter of time until bonds come undone. I will be wrong if we go into a deflationary depression, so use stop losses equal to 3 average ranges. There were many questions relating to this position: "What if the Fed eases again? How will that affect your opinion?" "What about the deflation going on in housing?"
The next step for the contest is to collect the opening prices of each of the ideas above. I will post the symbol, price, etc, and 10-day average range. The 10-d.a.r. is the divisor for the movement in the market. Example. If Bonds fall 1.5 points and the average range is 0.75 pts, then my call would be correct by a # of 2. (1.5 correct movement/0.75 avg range = 2 avg ranges).
The next step is to build a portfolio of all of these ideas and give the same $risk for each position. We want to have each idea be equally-weighted, therefore, we will weight it according to its volatility. Our portfolio is $1 million and there are 12 ideas. If each idea were to move 3 average ranges against the portfolio, then we will design it so that we lose 10% or $100,000. So each position can risk $8,500. Therefore, we can put on whatever position size so that the risk equals $8,500. This may involve using some leverage, as you'll see.
The next post will go into the finer details.
Please feel free to reply to any idea and add comments to your forecast or to post a question. I can try to answer any questions that come in or relay those questions to the correct person.
Happy Trading,
Tim 1:01PM EST Friday, Jan 11, 2008
Thank you everyone for your participation and I think that this month will be very interesting to see how our "Round-Table" ideas shape up.
Here are the guesses:
Mark Juviler - Short the DJIA - no reason discussed.
Casey Allen - Long the DJIA - market is oversold and due for a rally.
David Brandman - Long ETFC (E-Trade Financial Group) - They have cleared off $3 billion from their balance sheet.
Randy Shapiro - Buy Gold - based on front month Feb futures, buy on a cross of $900 OR on a drop back to $850. Risk $30 if buy at $850.
Ernie Arnow - Buy POT (Potash Corp) - It takes five years to develop a mine and they have the biggest mine operating now.
John Wellbourne - Buy AEGG (American Energy Group) - [If we had a poll from last meeting, then John would have won the contest with the gain in AEGG from last meeting to this meeting.] John updated us on the news on AEGG and what news would need to hit in order for the stock to advance. If the company gets a "reserve report" then it would be ready for a big move up.
Jim McCarthy - Crude Oil has been advancing on bearish news. This is bullish. Buy Crude Oil. 95.00 last basis March. Buy a drop of 50c.
Herb - Buy Natural Gas. Natural gas has lagged the rally in crude oil. (UNG is the natural gas e.t.f. that buys and holds various futures contracts) (USO is a crude oil e.t.f. that holds crude oil futures contracts)
Rolf Olson - Buy MBI (MBIA - Municipal Bond Insurance) - "I'm a sucker for catching a falling knife and I believe you should buy the news and sell the news. " With MBI in the news lately and the stock down from 76 to 13, there is an opportunity to buy. They cut their dividend to save $80 million and they have a $1 Billion line of credit established. Their goal is to maintain their triple-A rating. They have a bond issue that will take precendence over all other bonds issued. Also, Marty Whitman of the Third Avenue Value Fund is buying the stock. NOTE: Most responses/questions revolved around "Why not wait for the stock to bottom before buying?" or "Why not wait until the price moves back up over $20/sh?". Response: Rolf, feel free to post your reply to this question here.
Peter Afif - Buy DBA (Commodity e.t.f.) - Global warming is causing the price of food to advance at a time when we have a foolish policy in place to encourage corn consumption. Buy commodities.
Ken McCue - Buy SP500 on January 22nd close. Cycles are pointing lower until then and a low risk buy may present itself at that time.
Tim West - Sell Short Long Term Treasury Bonds - (use TLT for stock accounts, or USH8 for futures traders). The price of gold and the price of bonds generally do not move together but they are now. They are both benefitting from the move to "safe" instruments. However, the central banks have been injecting massive amounts of liquidity (over $2 trillion) into the system and this will turn into an inflationary spiral in the not-to-distant future. M3 is growing 16% yoy while the M2 is only showing 6%-7% annual growth. Inflation is likely running at 6%-9% and not the low 3% they are reporting right now. Interest rates will likely start rising sharply once people stop lending their money at these extraordinarily low, negative-real-rates of return. Gold is telling you to sell out of bonds - it is a matter of time until bonds come undone. I will be wrong if we go into a deflationary depression, so use stop losses equal to 3 average ranges. There were many questions relating to this position: "What if the Fed eases again? How will that affect your opinion?" "What about the deflation going on in housing?"
The next step for the contest is to collect the opening prices of each of the ideas above. I will post the symbol, price, etc, and 10-day average range. The 10-d.a.r. is the divisor for the movement in the market. Example. If Bonds fall 1.5 points and the average range is 0.75 pts, then my call would be correct by a # of 2. (1.5 correct movement/0.75 avg range = 2 avg ranges).
The next step is to build a portfolio of all of these ideas and give the same $risk for each position. We want to have each idea be equally-weighted, therefore, we will weight it according to its volatility. Our portfolio is $1 million and there are 12 ideas. If each idea were to move 3 average ranges against the portfolio, then we will design it so that we lose 10% or $100,000. So each position can risk $8,500. Therefore, we can put on whatever position size so that the risk equals $8,500. This may involve using some leverage, as you'll see.
The next post will go into the finer details.
Please feel free to reply to any idea and add comments to your forecast or to post a question. I can try to answer any questions that come in or relay those questions to the correct person.
Happy Trading,
Tim 1:01PM EST Friday, Jan 11, 2008
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Next Meeting - Jan 9th - 5:30PM - BobbyQ's
Greetings and Happy New Year!
BobbyQ’s is ready for us to meet next Wednesday, January 9th at 5:30PM for another intriguing get together.
Last month turned out to be an opportunity for us to hear about American Energy Group (bulletin board symbol AEGG – stock price was $0.54 bid, $0.60 ask at the time). The CEO Pierce Onthank of AEGG was invited by one of our new group members John Welbourn to present his case for buying the stock of this royalty-stream-based Pakistani natural gas company. Given the recent headlines out of Pakistan with the murder of a Presidential candidate – the opportunity may be even more important to review and consider. Pierce had a persuasive argument for the company going forward and we appreciate John for inviting Pierce to speak with us.
AEGG info at Marketwatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/aegg
The balance of the last meeting was reviewing previous monthly ideas and collecting a portion of everyone’s new ideas. Unfortunately we didn’t collect everyone’s ideas and therefore there is no contest for this month – sorry or apologies to anyone who had a terrific idea that didn’t get exposure at the meeting.
The big winner of the contest for Nov-to-December was David Brandman who chose China Finance (JRJC) as a short-sale. The stock had its exact high on the night of the meeting and tumbled from the $38 area to below $17 before rebounding into the meeting. An amazing call indeed. Congratulations David. Can you do that again for us next month? I know we are all interested to know David’s ideas regarding his January Effect strategy. David mentioned some picks at the meeting, perhaps Krispy Kreme Doughnuts among others. I’d like to know what he likes now.
Mark Juviler was great to bring his laptop computer running QCharts software with live data (of course the markets were closed) so we could pull up charts of each stock or market we were discussing. It was a key element of the meeting to have Mark provide this for us and allows us to discuss whatever ideas or technical indicators we would like to. Thank you – thank you Mark.
I look forward to seeing all of you in the new year and please reply if you know you can make it.
Best regards,
BobbyQ’s is ready for us to meet next Wednesday, January 9th at 5:30PM for another intriguing get together.
Last month turned out to be an opportunity for us to hear about American Energy Group (bulletin board symbol AEGG – stock price was $0.54 bid, $0.60 ask at the time). The CEO Pierce Onthank of AEGG was invited by one of our new group members John Welbourn to present his case for buying the stock of this royalty-stream-based Pakistani natural gas company. Given the recent headlines out of Pakistan with the murder of a Presidential candidate – the opportunity may be even more important to review and consider. Pierce had a persuasive argument for the company going forward and we appreciate John for inviting Pierce to speak with us.
AEGG info at Marketwatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/aegg
The balance of the last meeting was reviewing previous monthly ideas and collecting a portion of everyone’s new ideas. Unfortunately we didn’t collect everyone’s ideas and therefore there is no contest for this month – sorry or apologies to anyone who had a terrific idea that didn’t get exposure at the meeting.
The big winner of the contest for Nov-to-December was David Brandman who chose China Finance (JRJC) as a short-sale. The stock had its exact high on the night of the meeting and tumbled from the $38 area to below $17 before rebounding into the meeting. An amazing call indeed. Congratulations David. Can you do that again for us next month? I know we are all interested to know David’s ideas regarding his January Effect strategy. David mentioned some picks at the meeting, perhaps Krispy Kreme Doughnuts among others. I’d like to know what he likes now.
Mark Juviler was great to bring his laptop computer running QCharts software with live data (of course the markets were closed) so we could pull up charts of each stock or market we were discussing. It was a key element of the meeting to have Mark provide this for us and allows us to discuss whatever ideas or technical indicators we would like to. Thank you – thank you Mark.
I look forward to seeing all of you in the new year and please reply if you know you can make it.
Best regards,
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
