Please inspect your forecast for accuracy.
Name, Market, Entry, Avg Range, Direction Forecast
Mark Juviler DJIA 13300 245 down
Jim Sullivan DJIA 13300 245 up
Dennis - 2 pick basket GLD (Gold etf) 82.38 1.377 up
Dennis - 2 pick basket DXY (US Dollar Index) 75.505 0.52 down
Pam - 3 picks POT long vs DIA short - ratio 0.9423 0.036 up
Pam - 3 picks EMC long vs DIA short - ratio 0.1648 0.00528 up
Pam - 3 picks POT Potash Corp long 125.8 6.11 up
Ken McCue SPY 147.73 2.88 up (buy at 10:30AM, Nov 8)
Mike - 5 stockbasket ARAY Accuray 17.29 1.23 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket SUF Sulphco 6.14 0.74 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket CSCO Cisco 30.38 1.009 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket INTC Intel 26.89 0.63 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket ILMN Illumina 54.65 2.41 up
Ilene - FXF (Swiss France etf) 88.45 0.9247 up
Ilene - 2 stockbasket FLR 145.09 8.22 up
Ilene - 2 stockbasket SI (Siemens) 138.09 3.05 up
Ilene - watch only - Chinese Yuan 0.13425 0.0001 up
Tim West 30 year bond futures - USZ7 113 27/32 0.68 down
David Brandman JRJC (Chinese Finance) 38.2 3.38 down
Joe Boccuzzi FXC (Canadian Dollar etf) 108.11 1.05 up
Joe Boccuzzi SLT 25.09 1.38 up
Bob Gifford QQQQ 54.13 1.03278 short
Bob Gifford EEM (Emerging Mkt etf) 157.72 5.66 short
Stan Katz FXE (EuroCurrency etf) 146.78 0.83 short
We have 17 total bets for this month at $2 guess.
12 people at the meeting gave 17 total guesses.
Which means I collected $10 in additional bet money - so the prize pool is $34.
If you have a correction, tell me immediately.
Remember for next month, as we discussed at this meeting, you can use specific criteria to buy and sell, or to sell and buy, just like you would do with a brokerage firm. You can buy-limit, buy-stop, sell-limit, etc. You can be creative, but the idea is to capture the most "AVERAGE RANGES" during the course of the contest.
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION:
Since our picks collectively made money last month and you asked me how I would construct a portfolio of these ideas - I will do my best to show you here although it may be confusing.
The first step is to divide the portfolio into slices. There were 12 people with 17 ideas, so we will divide the portfolio into 17 slices. 1/17 = 5.88% of the portfolio for each slice. That is "one way" to look at it. The other way is to say we will risk 0.588% of the portfolio per position. To achieve and define risk, I will use 3 "average ranges" as the stop loss point. The low-volatility positions will get more capital and the high-volatility positions will get less. For example: Gold via the GLD etf. GLD has 1.67% average range for the past 10 days. 3 times that = 5.01% loss to the stop out point which is where we want to lose .588% of the portfolio. That means the position size should be $58,653. With GLD at $82.38 per share, it means you would buy 712 shares. If you work out the entire portfolio, then we would lose 10% if all the ideas hit their stops. If all the positions hit 3 average range profits, then we would be up 10%.
Last month, for example, the average idea gained 0.36 ranges. Additionally, had we stopped out any idea that hit a loss threshold of 3 times its average range, then the group average would have been 1.76 ranges. 1 range = $4125, so the profit to the portfolio was 1.76 x 4125 = $7260 or 0.726% return for the month. Annualized return = 8.712%
So, why does 1 range = $4125? Because we had 8 guesses = split the 10% worst case monthly loss into equal pieces to make each position lose 1.25% for the portfolio. 1.25% of 1 million = 12,500. We furthermore want to stay in a position as long as it hasn't gone against us by 3 average ranges, so divided the $12,500 by 3 to determine the value of an average range. 1/3 of $12,500 is $4,125.
For next month I think we may just decide to do a round-table discussion of ideas. Mark Juviler might be available to give a short presentation on programming with tradestation and I'd be happy to do a review of QCharts. Mark has a laptop with wireless connectivity that would be helpful to show you the features and power of the software. Ken McCue has a speaker that could enlighten us about credit default swaps. Ken heard the presentation and he believes we would enjoy it.
For all of you interested in learning more about silver, I'd suggest you watch Jason Hommel on the video above courtesy of the link with YouTube to his "reasons why silver will double" or any other video by Jason Hommel. His website is http://www.silverstockreport.com and to view all of his past jewels of advice http://silverstockreport.com/ssrarchive.htm
To learn more about the fraud, search for Ted Butler Market Commentary at Google.
Have a great month!
Thursday, November 8, 2007
WTN Contest Winner for Oct 9 to Nov 7
Congratulations Joseph Boccuzzi for choosing to buy the Canadian Dollar which advanced 9 average ranges from the last meeting based on the FXC etf going from 102.19 to 108.09 where 0.66 was the 10-day avg range as of the close October 9th.
2nd place: Bob Way - long GLD +7 ranges (73.36 entry, 1.32 avg rg, 82.58 last, +6.98 ranges)
3rd place: Barbara Rockefeller - long FXE (EuroCurrency) +6.4 ranges (141.66 entry, .813 avg rg, 146.89 last, +6.43 ranges)
4th place: Mark Juviler - short DJIA for a 3.7 range profit. (14078 entry, 210 avg rg, 13300 last, -3.7 ranges)
That is the last profitable idea.
5th place: Tim West - long Semiconductors via PSI etf at 18.85 to 17.76, with 0.33 avg rg, loss of -3.3 ranges.
6th place: Tom Saracena - basket of 3 momentum stocks WBMD, RVBD, TBSI which lost 25% on average, but had average volatility of 5% daily = 5 average range loss.
7th place: Stan Katz - long US Dollar via Eurocurrency etf FXE = loss of 6.43 ranges (opposite of Barbara Rockefeller's trade above)
8th place: Ken McCue - long Uranium via Uranium futures = loss of 8.8 ranges, but only down 2.6% because of low volality in uranium. It has been a low volatility price decline.
Congratulations to the big prize winner - Good luck for the next competition - winner to be based on the closing price of the December 5, the first Wednesday of December.
2nd place: Bob Way - long GLD +7 ranges (73.36 entry, 1.32 avg rg, 82.58 last, +6.98 ranges)
3rd place: Barbara Rockefeller - long FXE (EuroCurrency) +6.4 ranges (141.66 entry, .813 avg rg, 146.89 last, +6.43 ranges)
4th place: Mark Juviler - short DJIA for a 3.7 range profit. (14078 entry, 210 avg rg, 13300 last, -3.7 ranges)
That is the last profitable idea.
5th place: Tim West - long Semiconductors via PSI etf at 18.85 to 17.76, with 0.33 avg rg, loss of -3.3 ranges.
6th place: Tom Saracena - basket of 3 momentum stocks WBMD, RVBD, TBSI which lost 25% on average, but had average volatility of 5% daily = 5 average range loss.
7th place: Stan Katz - long US Dollar via Eurocurrency etf FXE = loss of 6.43 ranges (opposite of Barbara Rockefeller's trade above)
8th place: Ken McCue - long Uranium via Uranium futures = loss of 8.8 ranges, but only down 2.6% because of low volality in uranium. It has been a low volatility price decline.
Congratulations to the big prize winner - Good luck for the next competition - winner to be based on the closing price of the December 5, the first Wednesday of December.
Westport Traders Network Meeting
November 7, 2007 - Bobby Q's -5:30PM
Since the last meeting on October 9th, 2007
1. The DJIA closed at 14165 that day and peaked at 14981 on Oct 11, 2007 and dropped to its low today at 13,375, a drop of 606 pts or 4.5%
1a. The DJIA started the year at 12463 and is now up 7.1% YTD (based on 13,340 last at 3:51PM) The DJIA rallied 18.9% from the low in March under $12,000 to the peak in October at 14198
2. Bank stocks as measured by the XLF Financial ETF have dropped sharply from 35.70 that day, down to $30.23 as I type now at 3:36PM with the DJIA -311 pts
3. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) meanwhile, was at 53.38, hit a high of 55.07 and now sits at 53.55 for a small gain, a nice outperformance by technology.
3a. The QQQQ started the year at 43.16 and is now at 53.37 for a 23% gain YTD = GROWTH MANAGERS ARE OUTPERFORMING VALUE
4. The DJTransports went from 4986 (had peaked on Oct 5 @ 5023 and peaked in July near 5500) to 4674, a drop of 6.4% since last meeting and 14.6% off the highest high.
5. The FXI (China ETF) went from 191.91 up to a peak of 218.48 before slipping back to 190.07 today for a small 1% drop, but a 13% drop off the high.
5a. China's Index was at 88 a year ago and is now at 188.6, a gain of 115% in one year!!! EYE POPPING!!!
6. The Dollar was at 85.37 a year ago and is now down to 75.50, a drop of 10 pts or 12%.
7. Consumer Confidence has dropped to a new yearly low as of October 30, down 15% from its high over 111 to 95 last
8. Google - a year ago was $472, at the start of the year was $460 and is now at 731 and hit an all-time high of 747 today.
8a. GOOG - keep in mind, has $47.51 in revenues underlying each share, but revenue is growing at 161%
9. Crude Oil - See above, December crude up to 96.31 from 79.54 a month ago. Crude is also up from a low of $50 set in January on the breakdown from $80 last summer.
10. Natural Gas - 7.64 last, down from a peak last August at $11 and within 1 range of the low of the year at 7.30. NatGas was also over $9 in early November last year.
11. Money Supply - The M3 Money Supply is up 16% Year-over-Year. Dangerous liquidity creation is a signal for higher future inflation rates.
Since the last meeting on October 9th, 2007
1. The DJIA closed at 14165 that day and peaked at 14981 on Oct 11, 2007 and dropped to its low today at 13,375, a drop of 606 pts or 4.5%
1a. The DJIA started the year at 12463 and is now up 7.1% YTD (based on 13,340 last at 3:51PM) The DJIA rallied 18.9% from the low in March under $12,000 to the peak in October at 14198
2. Bank stocks as measured by the XLF Financial ETF have dropped sharply from 35.70 that day, down to $30.23 as I type now at 3:36PM with the DJIA -311 pts
3. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) meanwhile, was at 53.38, hit a high of 55.07 and now sits at 53.55 for a small gain, a nice outperformance by technology.
3a. The QQQQ started the year at 43.16 and is now at 53.37 for a 23% gain YTD = GROWTH MANAGERS ARE OUTPERFORMING VALUE
4. The DJTransports went from 4986 (had peaked on Oct 5 @ 5023 and peaked in July near 5500) to 4674, a drop of 6.4% since last meeting and 14.6% off the highest high.
5. The FXI (China ETF) went from 191.91 up to a peak of 218.48 before slipping back to 190.07 today for a small 1% drop, but a 13% drop off the high.
5a. China's Index was at 88 a year ago and is now at 188.6, a gain of 115% in one year!!! EYE POPPING!!!
6. The Dollar was at 85.37 a year ago and is now down to 75.50, a drop of 10 pts or 12%.
7. Consumer Confidence has dropped to a new yearly low as of October 30, down 15% from its high over 111 to 95 last
8. Google - a year ago was $472, at the start of the year was $460 and is now at 731 and hit an all-time high of 747 today.
8a. GOOG - keep in mind, has $47.51 in revenues underlying each share, but revenue is growing at 161%
9. Crude Oil - See above, December crude up to 96.31 from 79.54 a month ago. Crude is also up from a low of $50 set in January on the breakdown from $80 last summer.
10. Natural Gas - 7.64 last, down from a peak last August at $11 and within 1 range of the low of the year at 7.30. NatGas was also over $9 in early November last year.
11. Money Supply - The M3 Money Supply is up 16% Year-over-Year. Dangerous liquidity creation is a signal for higher future inflation rates.
Monday, November 5, 2007
This Wednesday's 5:30PM Meeting at Bobby Q's
SCHEDULE:
5:30PM ARRIVAL, get a drink and/or appetizer
6:00PM BEGIN PRESENTATION UPSTAIRS
7:00PM-8:00PM END MEETING, HAVE DINNER
Greetings,
The meeting this Wednesday will highlight the “January Effect” as interpreted by group member David Brandman. David has been successfully utilizing this powerful technique for his own account over the years and should be a great presentation. David performs investment screens to find a list of perhaps 5-10 stocks to invest in over the period of November to December and looks for a strong outperformance of these stocks in the opening months of the new year. David’s track record with this strategy is eye-popping, so I am eager to see what you all think.
As a reminder, the way I envision this group being a powerful, money-making gathering is for us all to SHARE what trends we see in motion and to step up to the microphone and give us a quick “elevator speech” on the idea. As we all share ideas in an organized fashion, we will all have some powerful ammunition. Most importantly, know that no one is right all the time and there is no booby-prize even if all your ideas don’t work. Stop loss orders take care of losing ideas. Remember, NO IDEA is “better” than another. Some ideas are culled out of in-depth research and others can be observations that a certain store is much busier than the others (Can you say “Panera Bread” in Norwalk?)
I look forward to handing out the WINNING PRIZE for the October 10th “best pick”. I figured out a new way to add some more fun to that contest, so here is what I came up with. I’ll give you 1 guess for free, which equates to a value of $2. You can buy more guesses at a price of $2 each, no limit. I imagine this will have to get “registered” with the state of Connecticut if we get too many members. Hope that good to you too.
Last month’s meeting did not include a simulated “portfolio” but perhaps we can explore that option again at this Month’s meeting.
After the October meeting finished at 8PM, a group of us gathered for dinner downstairs to the great waitress services by Crystal.
Looking forward to seeing you all there.
Please email twest@compocapital.com so I know how much space to set up for us at the restaurant.
Best regards,
Tim West
203-952-6721 mobile, anytime
5:30PM ARRIVAL, get a drink and/or appetizer
6:00PM BEGIN PRESENTATION UPSTAIRS
7:00PM-8:00PM END MEETING, HAVE DINNER
Greetings,
The meeting this Wednesday will highlight the “January Effect” as interpreted by group member David Brandman. David has been successfully utilizing this powerful technique for his own account over the years and should be a great presentation. David performs investment screens to find a list of perhaps 5-10 stocks to invest in over the period of November to December and looks for a strong outperformance of these stocks in the opening months of the new year. David’s track record with this strategy is eye-popping, so I am eager to see what you all think.
As a reminder, the way I envision this group being a powerful, money-making gathering is for us all to SHARE what trends we see in motion and to step up to the microphone and give us a quick “elevator speech” on the idea. As we all share ideas in an organized fashion, we will all have some powerful ammunition. Most importantly, know that no one is right all the time and there is no booby-prize even if all your ideas don’t work. Stop loss orders take care of losing ideas. Remember, NO IDEA is “better” than another. Some ideas are culled out of in-depth research and others can be observations that a certain store is much busier than the others (Can you say “Panera Bread” in Norwalk?)
I look forward to handing out the WINNING PRIZE for the October 10th “best pick”. I figured out a new way to add some more fun to that contest, so here is what I came up with. I’ll give you 1 guess for free, which equates to a value of $2. You can buy more guesses at a price of $2 each, no limit. I imagine this will have to get “registered” with the state of Connecticut if we get too many members. Hope that good to you too.
Last month’s meeting did not include a simulated “portfolio” but perhaps we can explore that option again at this Month’s meeting.
After the October meeting finished at 8PM, a group of us gathered for dinner downstairs to the great waitress services by Crystal.
Looking forward to seeing you all there.
Please email twest@compocapital.com so I know how much space to set up for us at the restaurant.
Best regards,
Tim West
203-952-6721 mobile, anytime
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