Please inspect your forecast for accuracy.
Name, Market, Entry, Avg Range, Direction Forecast
Mark Juviler DJIA 13300 245 down
Jim Sullivan DJIA 13300 245 up
Dennis - 2 pick basket GLD (Gold etf) 82.38 1.377 up
Dennis - 2 pick basket DXY (US Dollar Index) 75.505 0.52 down
Pam - 3 picks POT long vs DIA short - ratio 0.9423 0.036 up
Pam - 3 picks EMC long vs DIA short - ratio 0.1648 0.00528 up
Pam - 3 picks POT Potash Corp long 125.8 6.11 up
Ken McCue SPY 147.73 2.88 up (buy at 10:30AM, Nov 8)
Mike - 5 stockbasket ARAY Accuray 17.29 1.23 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket SUF Sulphco 6.14 0.74 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket CSCO Cisco 30.38 1.009 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket INTC Intel 26.89 0.63 up
Mike - 5 stockbasket ILMN Illumina 54.65 2.41 up
Ilene - FXF (Swiss France etf) 88.45 0.9247 up
Ilene - 2 stockbasket FLR 145.09 8.22 up
Ilene - 2 stockbasket SI (Siemens) 138.09 3.05 up
Ilene - watch only - Chinese Yuan 0.13425 0.0001 up
Tim West 30 year bond futures - USZ7 113 27/32 0.68 down
David Brandman JRJC (Chinese Finance) 38.2 3.38 down
Joe Boccuzzi FXC (Canadian Dollar etf) 108.11 1.05 up
Joe Boccuzzi SLT 25.09 1.38 up
Bob Gifford QQQQ 54.13 1.03278 short
Bob Gifford EEM (Emerging Mkt etf) 157.72 5.66 short
Stan Katz FXE (EuroCurrency etf) 146.78 0.83 short
We have 17 total bets for this month at $2 guess.
12 people at the meeting gave 17 total guesses.
Which means I collected $10 in additional bet money - so the prize pool is $34.
If you have a correction, tell me immediately.
Remember for next month, as we discussed at this meeting, you can use specific criteria to buy and sell, or to sell and buy, just like you would do with a brokerage firm. You can buy-limit, buy-stop, sell-limit, etc. You can be creative, but the idea is to capture the most "AVERAGE RANGES" during the course of the contest.
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION:
Since our picks collectively made money last month and you asked me how I would construct a portfolio of these ideas - I will do my best to show you here although it may be confusing.
The first step is to divide the portfolio into slices. There were 12 people with 17 ideas, so we will divide the portfolio into 17 slices. 1/17 = 5.88% of the portfolio for each slice. That is "one way" to look at it. The other way is to say we will risk 0.588% of the portfolio per position. To achieve and define risk, I will use 3 "average ranges" as the stop loss point. The low-volatility positions will get more capital and the high-volatility positions will get less. For example: Gold via the GLD etf. GLD has 1.67% average range for the past 10 days. 3 times that = 5.01% loss to the stop out point which is where we want to lose .588% of the portfolio. That means the position size should be $58,653. With GLD at $82.38 per share, it means you would buy 712 shares. If you work out the entire portfolio, then we would lose 10% if all the ideas hit their stops. If all the positions hit 3 average range profits, then we would be up 10%.
Last month, for example, the average idea gained 0.36 ranges. Additionally, had we stopped out any idea that hit a loss threshold of 3 times its average range, then the group average would have been 1.76 ranges. 1 range = $4125, so the profit to the portfolio was 1.76 x 4125 = $7260 or 0.726% return for the month. Annualized return = 8.712%
So, why does 1 range = $4125? Because we had 8 guesses = split the 10% worst case monthly loss into equal pieces to make each position lose 1.25% for the portfolio. 1.25% of 1 million = 12,500. We furthermore want to stay in a position as long as it hasn't gone against us by 3 average ranges, so divided the $12,500 by 3 to determine the value of an average range. 1/3 of $12,500 is $4,125.
For next month I think we may just decide to do a round-table discussion of ideas. Mark Juviler might be available to give a short presentation on programming with tradestation and I'd be happy to do a review of QCharts. Mark has a laptop with wireless connectivity that would be helpful to show you the features and power of the software. Ken McCue has a speaker that could enlighten us about credit default swaps. Ken heard the presentation and he believes we would enjoy it.
For all of you interested in learning more about silver, I'd suggest you watch Jason Hommel on the video above courtesy of the link with YouTube to his "reasons why silver will double" or any other video by Jason Hommel. His website is http://www.silverstockreport.com and to view all of his past jewels of advice http://silverstockreport.com/ssrarchive.htm
To learn more about the fraud, search for Ted Butler Market Commentary at Google.
Have a great month!
Thursday, November 8, 2007
WTN Contest Winner for Oct 9 to Nov 7
Congratulations Joseph Boccuzzi for choosing to buy the Canadian Dollar which advanced 9 average ranges from the last meeting based on the FXC etf going from 102.19 to 108.09 where 0.66 was the 10-day avg range as of the close October 9th.
2nd place: Bob Way - long GLD +7 ranges (73.36 entry, 1.32 avg rg, 82.58 last, +6.98 ranges)
3rd place: Barbara Rockefeller - long FXE (EuroCurrency) +6.4 ranges (141.66 entry, .813 avg rg, 146.89 last, +6.43 ranges)
4th place: Mark Juviler - short DJIA for a 3.7 range profit. (14078 entry, 210 avg rg, 13300 last, -3.7 ranges)
That is the last profitable idea.
5th place: Tim West - long Semiconductors via PSI etf at 18.85 to 17.76, with 0.33 avg rg, loss of -3.3 ranges.
6th place: Tom Saracena - basket of 3 momentum stocks WBMD, RVBD, TBSI which lost 25% on average, but had average volatility of 5% daily = 5 average range loss.
7th place: Stan Katz - long US Dollar via Eurocurrency etf FXE = loss of 6.43 ranges (opposite of Barbara Rockefeller's trade above)
8th place: Ken McCue - long Uranium via Uranium futures = loss of 8.8 ranges, but only down 2.6% because of low volality in uranium. It has been a low volatility price decline.
Congratulations to the big prize winner - Good luck for the next competition - winner to be based on the closing price of the December 5, the first Wednesday of December.
2nd place: Bob Way - long GLD +7 ranges (73.36 entry, 1.32 avg rg, 82.58 last, +6.98 ranges)
3rd place: Barbara Rockefeller - long FXE (EuroCurrency) +6.4 ranges (141.66 entry, .813 avg rg, 146.89 last, +6.43 ranges)
4th place: Mark Juviler - short DJIA for a 3.7 range profit. (14078 entry, 210 avg rg, 13300 last, -3.7 ranges)
That is the last profitable idea.
5th place: Tim West - long Semiconductors via PSI etf at 18.85 to 17.76, with 0.33 avg rg, loss of -3.3 ranges.
6th place: Tom Saracena - basket of 3 momentum stocks WBMD, RVBD, TBSI which lost 25% on average, but had average volatility of 5% daily = 5 average range loss.
7th place: Stan Katz - long US Dollar via Eurocurrency etf FXE = loss of 6.43 ranges (opposite of Barbara Rockefeller's trade above)
8th place: Ken McCue - long Uranium via Uranium futures = loss of 8.8 ranges, but only down 2.6% because of low volality in uranium. It has been a low volatility price decline.
Congratulations to the big prize winner - Good luck for the next competition - winner to be based on the closing price of the December 5, the first Wednesday of December.
Westport Traders Network Meeting
November 7, 2007 - Bobby Q's -5:30PM
Since the last meeting on October 9th, 2007
1. The DJIA closed at 14165 that day and peaked at 14981 on Oct 11, 2007 and dropped to its low today at 13,375, a drop of 606 pts or 4.5%
1a. The DJIA started the year at 12463 and is now up 7.1% YTD (based on 13,340 last at 3:51PM) The DJIA rallied 18.9% from the low in March under $12,000 to the peak in October at 14198
2. Bank stocks as measured by the XLF Financial ETF have dropped sharply from 35.70 that day, down to $30.23 as I type now at 3:36PM with the DJIA -311 pts
3. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) meanwhile, was at 53.38, hit a high of 55.07 and now sits at 53.55 for a small gain, a nice outperformance by technology.
3a. The QQQQ started the year at 43.16 and is now at 53.37 for a 23% gain YTD = GROWTH MANAGERS ARE OUTPERFORMING VALUE
4. The DJTransports went from 4986 (had peaked on Oct 5 @ 5023 and peaked in July near 5500) to 4674, a drop of 6.4% since last meeting and 14.6% off the highest high.
5. The FXI (China ETF) went from 191.91 up to a peak of 218.48 before slipping back to 190.07 today for a small 1% drop, but a 13% drop off the high.
5a. China's Index was at 88 a year ago and is now at 188.6, a gain of 115% in one year!!! EYE POPPING!!!
6. The Dollar was at 85.37 a year ago and is now down to 75.50, a drop of 10 pts or 12%.
7. Consumer Confidence has dropped to a new yearly low as of October 30, down 15% from its high over 111 to 95 last
8. Google - a year ago was $472, at the start of the year was $460 and is now at 731 and hit an all-time high of 747 today.
8a. GOOG - keep in mind, has $47.51 in revenues underlying each share, but revenue is growing at 161%
9. Crude Oil - See above, December crude up to 96.31 from 79.54 a month ago. Crude is also up from a low of $50 set in January on the breakdown from $80 last summer.
10. Natural Gas - 7.64 last, down from a peak last August at $11 and within 1 range of the low of the year at 7.30. NatGas was also over $9 in early November last year.
11. Money Supply - The M3 Money Supply is up 16% Year-over-Year. Dangerous liquidity creation is a signal for higher future inflation rates.
Since the last meeting on October 9th, 2007
1. The DJIA closed at 14165 that day and peaked at 14981 on Oct 11, 2007 and dropped to its low today at 13,375, a drop of 606 pts or 4.5%
1a. The DJIA started the year at 12463 and is now up 7.1% YTD (based on 13,340 last at 3:51PM) The DJIA rallied 18.9% from the low in March under $12,000 to the peak in October at 14198
2. Bank stocks as measured by the XLF Financial ETF have dropped sharply from 35.70 that day, down to $30.23 as I type now at 3:36PM with the DJIA -311 pts
3. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) meanwhile, was at 53.38, hit a high of 55.07 and now sits at 53.55 for a small gain, a nice outperformance by technology.
3a. The QQQQ started the year at 43.16 and is now at 53.37 for a 23% gain YTD = GROWTH MANAGERS ARE OUTPERFORMING VALUE
4. The DJTransports went from 4986 (had peaked on Oct 5 @ 5023 and peaked in July near 5500) to 4674, a drop of 6.4% since last meeting and 14.6% off the highest high.
5. The FXI (China ETF) went from 191.91 up to a peak of 218.48 before slipping back to 190.07 today for a small 1% drop, but a 13% drop off the high.
5a. China's Index was at 88 a year ago and is now at 188.6, a gain of 115% in one year!!! EYE POPPING!!!
6. The Dollar was at 85.37 a year ago and is now down to 75.50, a drop of 10 pts or 12%.
7. Consumer Confidence has dropped to a new yearly low as of October 30, down 15% from its high over 111 to 95 last
8. Google - a year ago was $472, at the start of the year was $460 and is now at 731 and hit an all-time high of 747 today.
8a. GOOG - keep in mind, has $47.51 in revenues underlying each share, but revenue is growing at 161%
9. Crude Oil - See above, December crude up to 96.31 from 79.54 a month ago. Crude is also up from a low of $50 set in January on the breakdown from $80 last summer.
10. Natural Gas - 7.64 last, down from a peak last August at $11 and within 1 range of the low of the year at 7.30. NatGas was also over $9 in early November last year.
11. Money Supply - The M3 Money Supply is up 16% Year-over-Year. Dangerous liquidity creation is a signal for higher future inflation rates.
Monday, November 5, 2007
This Wednesday's 5:30PM Meeting at Bobby Q's
SCHEDULE:
5:30PM ARRIVAL, get a drink and/or appetizer
6:00PM BEGIN PRESENTATION UPSTAIRS
7:00PM-8:00PM END MEETING, HAVE DINNER
Greetings,
The meeting this Wednesday will highlight the “January Effect” as interpreted by group member David Brandman. David has been successfully utilizing this powerful technique for his own account over the years and should be a great presentation. David performs investment screens to find a list of perhaps 5-10 stocks to invest in over the period of November to December and looks for a strong outperformance of these stocks in the opening months of the new year. David’s track record with this strategy is eye-popping, so I am eager to see what you all think.
As a reminder, the way I envision this group being a powerful, money-making gathering is for us all to SHARE what trends we see in motion and to step up to the microphone and give us a quick “elevator speech” on the idea. As we all share ideas in an organized fashion, we will all have some powerful ammunition. Most importantly, know that no one is right all the time and there is no booby-prize even if all your ideas don’t work. Stop loss orders take care of losing ideas. Remember, NO IDEA is “better” than another. Some ideas are culled out of in-depth research and others can be observations that a certain store is much busier than the others (Can you say “Panera Bread” in Norwalk?)
I look forward to handing out the WINNING PRIZE for the October 10th “best pick”. I figured out a new way to add some more fun to that contest, so here is what I came up with. I’ll give you 1 guess for free, which equates to a value of $2. You can buy more guesses at a price of $2 each, no limit. I imagine this will have to get “registered” with the state of Connecticut if we get too many members. Hope that good to you too.
Last month’s meeting did not include a simulated “portfolio” but perhaps we can explore that option again at this Month’s meeting.
After the October meeting finished at 8PM, a group of us gathered for dinner downstairs to the great waitress services by Crystal.
Looking forward to seeing you all there.
Please email twest@compocapital.com so I know how much space to set up for us at the restaurant.
Best regards,
Tim West
203-952-6721 mobile, anytime
5:30PM ARRIVAL, get a drink and/or appetizer
6:00PM BEGIN PRESENTATION UPSTAIRS
7:00PM-8:00PM END MEETING, HAVE DINNER
Greetings,
The meeting this Wednesday will highlight the “January Effect” as interpreted by group member David Brandman. David has been successfully utilizing this powerful technique for his own account over the years and should be a great presentation. David performs investment screens to find a list of perhaps 5-10 stocks to invest in over the period of November to December and looks for a strong outperformance of these stocks in the opening months of the new year. David’s track record with this strategy is eye-popping, so I am eager to see what you all think.
As a reminder, the way I envision this group being a powerful, money-making gathering is for us all to SHARE what trends we see in motion and to step up to the microphone and give us a quick “elevator speech” on the idea. As we all share ideas in an organized fashion, we will all have some powerful ammunition. Most importantly, know that no one is right all the time and there is no booby-prize even if all your ideas don’t work. Stop loss orders take care of losing ideas. Remember, NO IDEA is “better” than another. Some ideas are culled out of in-depth research and others can be observations that a certain store is much busier than the others (Can you say “Panera Bread” in Norwalk?)
I look forward to handing out the WINNING PRIZE for the October 10th “best pick”. I figured out a new way to add some more fun to that contest, so here is what I came up with. I’ll give you 1 guess for free, which equates to a value of $2. You can buy more guesses at a price of $2 each, no limit. I imagine this will have to get “registered” with the state of Connecticut if we get too many members. Hope that good to you too.
Last month’s meeting did not include a simulated “portfolio” but perhaps we can explore that option again at this Month’s meeting.
After the October meeting finished at 8PM, a group of us gathered for dinner downstairs to the great waitress services by Crystal.
Looking forward to seeing you all there.
Please email twest@compocapital.com so I know how much space to set up for us at the restaurant.
Best regards,
Tim West
203-952-6721 mobile, anytime
Thursday, October 25, 2007
CONTEST UPDATE for October 24, 2007
Here are the current results:
- Mark Juviler in the lead with 2.75 ranges in his "Short DJIA" strategy.
- JB in second with 1.89 ranges in his "Long Canadian Dollar" FXC.
- BR in third with 1.67 ranges in his "Long EuroCurrency" FXE.
- BW in fourth with 1.64 ranges in his "Long Gold" GLD.
- Tim West in fifth with -1.52 ranges with his "Long Semiconductors" PSI.
- Stan Katz in sixth with -1.67 ranges with his "Long US Dollar vs EuroC via short FXE.
- TS in seventh place with -3.05 ranges with his basket of 3 momentum stocks WBMD, RVBD, TBSI.
- KM in eigth place with -3.68 ranges with his "Long Uranium" UXZ7 contract.
Tim 8:27AM, Thursday, October 25, 2007
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2007 3:19PM
I was just contacted by Chris Morse, the creator of Trend Simplicity trading system software. A few years ago I had consulted with Chris to assist him with business development. Well, he is still alive and kicking with his program and is now regularly on the "radio" with this website TIGER FINANCIAL NEWS NETWORK. So, get realplayer and then check this out when you can www.tfnn.com Feel free to comment.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2007 10:26AM
Gold has tripled in value from the lowsset at $250 from 1998 to 2000. A similar event happened in 1970 to 1973 when gold lifted from $35/oz to climb over $100. So as I view this, gold could double from here ($750 now vs $100 to $200 back then) and then back down as it did into 1976
Thursday, October 11, 2007
OCTOBER 10, 2007 5:30-7:45PM MEETING
Great meeting last night. There were many great ideas, questions and comments shared by the group.
First, I'll put down everyone's forecasts, using initials only to protect our identity.
I'll put the symbol, direction
---------------------
MJ - DJIA, bearish - 10Day Avg Range = 210 pts. 14078 close. Reasoning "Weak economic outlook plus new stock market highs suggests over bullishness."
----------------------
TS - WBMD-RVBD-TBSI bullish - 3 stocks average = WBMD 61.35 last, 2.33 ar. RVBD 49.68 last, 2.68 ar. TBSI 53.55 last, 3.41 ar. "Fundamentals, momentum, breakout".
----------------------
SK - EuroUSD down - Using FXE (EuroCurrency ETF) 141.66 last, 0.813 ar. Reasoning "US Dollar recover or pull back"
----------------------
BR - USDollar down - Using FXE (EuroCurrency ETF) 141.66 last, 0.813 ar. Reasoning "Near recession economy or perception of recession"
----------------------
KM - Uranium bullish - Using what though? UX futures only shows a closing price. 85.10 UXZ7.
The Sep H-L for UXZ7 was 87.11-84.22. So, if we must be fair, perhaps the Sep monthly range will be used as a volatility measure. Reasoning: "Global commodity sector play"
----------------------
TW - Semiconductor Index bullish - symbol = PSI = etf by powershares - $18.85 last, 0.33 ar. Reasoning - "Seasonal fourth quarter strength in technology and efficiency investment spending driven by high energy prices will lead investors to semiconductor shares"
----------------------
JB - US Dollar Index down - using long Canadian Dollar etf = FXC 102.19 last, 0.66 ar. Reasoning - "Stability of credit markets leads to additionals easing by the Fed"
----------------------
BW - Gold - using GLD etf - 73.36 last, 1.32 ar. Reasoning "Safety"
----------------------------
So there you have all the guesses. Evidently not everyone understood the idea or just didn't want to participate. The next meeting I'd like everyone to have a 17-second "elevator speech" for an idea they have, if they want to participate in the prize. Of course, you don't have to participate.
First, I'll put down everyone's forecasts, using initials only to protect our identity.
I'll put the symbol, direction
---------------------
MJ - DJIA, bearish - 10Day Avg Range = 210 pts. 14078 close. Reasoning "Weak economic outlook plus new stock market highs suggests over bullishness."
----------------------
TS - WBMD-RVBD-TBSI bullish - 3 stocks average = WBMD 61.35 last, 2.33 ar. RVBD 49.68 last, 2.68 ar. TBSI 53.55 last, 3.41 ar. "Fundamentals, momentum, breakout".
----------------------
SK - EuroUSD down - Using FXE (EuroCurrency ETF) 141.66 last, 0.813 ar. Reasoning "US Dollar recover or pull back"
----------------------
BR - USDollar down - Using FXE (EuroCurrency ETF) 141.66 last, 0.813 ar. Reasoning "Near recession economy or perception of recession"
----------------------
KM - Uranium bullish - Using what though? UX futures only shows a closing price. 85.10 UXZ7.
The Sep H-L for UXZ7 was 87.11-84.22. So, if we must be fair, perhaps the Sep monthly range will be used as a volatility measure. Reasoning: "Global commodity sector play"
----------------------
TW - Semiconductor Index bullish - symbol = PSI = etf by powershares - $18.85 last, 0.33 ar. Reasoning - "Seasonal fourth quarter strength in technology and efficiency investment spending driven by high energy prices will lead investors to semiconductor shares"
----------------------
JB - US Dollar Index down - using long Canadian Dollar etf = FXC 102.19 last, 0.66 ar. Reasoning - "Stability of credit markets leads to additionals easing by the Fed"
----------------------
BW - Gold - using GLD etf - 73.36 last, 1.32 ar. Reasoning "Safety"
----------------------------
So there you have all the guesses. Evidently not everyone understood the idea or just didn't want to participate. The next meeting I'd like everyone to have a 17-second "elevator speech" for an idea they have, if they want to participate in the prize. Of course, you don't have to participate.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Meeting Wednesday, October 10 - 5:30PM
Networking meeting to begin at 5:30 at BobbyQ's Restaurant in Westport, CT. Presentation to begin at 6:00PM. Please share your opinions with the group by posting a reply or by voting on an issue down at the bottom of this page. The presentation upstairs must end before 7:45PM to make room for 8:00PM Wednesday Poker Night at BobbyQ's. www.bobbyqsrestaurant.com for phone number and directions.
Group Purpose and Mission:
Primary Purposes: Network people and opportunities. Assess opinions on market direction.
Secondary Purposes: Education on trading styles, trading and information technology. Build an online database of group interests and books/resources owned by group members.
I am happy to have each of our gatherings as in informal network meeting where people share their thoughts on market directions, trends and how to make money in the markets. We can formalize this collection of data to form a weekly "Consensus" that we could post here. Let's find out if we have a strong "edge" as a group or if we should be "faded" as a contrary opinion.
We all want to have relevant and interesting presentations for the group meetings, so let's focus our efforts on knowing what we all want to learn more about. I'll put together a list of topics and distribute it at the meeting. Please also share your favorite financial-related websites too and I'll post them here.
Here are some ideas to consider for each meeting:
1.) An open discussion (debate style, with moderator) about one or more markets each week. Envision the Barron's Round Table discussions. This may be too "formal" for us.
2.) Investment club. Would you like to run a simulated portfolio through the website Marketocracy as a group? I have run an very successful investment club before and have more than a few good ideas on what we'd need to do to make it successful. Please share your thoughts here by posting a reply or bring your opinion about running a simulated portfolio to the meeting.
Investment Club Strategy:
Each week bring your idea(s) and be ready for a 5 minute or less discussion on each idea. We then vote to vote or we table until the next meeting. Tabling usually means we need more information. We either invest 10% in our best idea (or ideas) and review the other 10% holdings. Maximum 10 ideas in the portfolio. Once 10 ideas are active then any new idea would have to boot out an existing idea. Majority vote required for any decision to add or delete an idea. We can all track the performance at the http://www.marketocracy.com/ website. We can form an investment company around the concept if we are successful or just do it for fun.
Now, for the meeting Wednesday, October 10 -
I would like to present a slide show on some research I have been doing for many years about an "analog" to the current investment climate. The charts and data make the case that the current markets are closely mimicing a time period in the past. Since late 2002 when I realized the pattern, the markets have been unfolding accordingly and are confirming the hypothesis. Would you like to know what might be next? I am curious to hear your feedback. The forecast has implications on the level of interest rates, inflation, gold prices, real estate, stock prices, currency prices, Presidential election outcomes and mass psychology.
$50 PRIZE WEEKLY (or 2 - $25 prizes)
Lastly, remember to bring your "market forecast" to win $50 in a BobbyQ Coupon. See rules below. Whatever futures market (unless everyone wants to pick individual stocks, in which case there will be two categories and $25 for each prize) you think will move the most between the time of the meeting and the next meeting will win $50. We need to adjust the movement by dividing the price move by the average daily range (11-day average range) so everyone doesn't just pick Natural Gas (which seems to move 5%-10% every day).
Looking forward to seeing you Wednesday, October 10 at 5:30PM at Bobby Q's in Westport, CT. See http://www.bobbyqsrestaurant.com/ for directions.
Group Purpose and Mission:
Primary Purposes: Network people and opportunities. Assess opinions on market direction.
Secondary Purposes: Education on trading styles, trading and information technology. Build an online database of group interests and books/resources owned by group members.
I am happy to have each of our gatherings as in informal network meeting where people share their thoughts on market directions, trends and how to make money in the markets. We can formalize this collection of data to form a weekly "Consensus" that we could post here. Let's find out if we have a strong "edge" as a group or if we should be "faded" as a contrary opinion.
We all want to have relevant and interesting presentations for the group meetings, so let's focus our efforts on knowing what we all want to learn more about. I'll put together a list of topics and distribute it at the meeting. Please also share your favorite financial-related websites too and I'll post them here.
Here are some ideas to consider for each meeting:
1.) An open discussion (debate style, with moderator) about one or more markets each week. Envision the Barron's Round Table discussions. This may be too "formal" for us.
2.) Investment club. Would you like to run a simulated portfolio through the website Marketocracy as a group? I have run an very successful investment club before and have more than a few good ideas on what we'd need to do to make it successful. Please share your thoughts here by posting a reply or bring your opinion about running a simulated portfolio to the meeting.
Investment Club Strategy:
Each week bring your idea(s) and be ready for a 5 minute or less discussion on each idea. We then vote to vote or we table until the next meeting. Tabling usually means we need more information. We either invest 10% in our best idea (or ideas) and review the other 10% holdings. Maximum 10 ideas in the portfolio. Once 10 ideas are active then any new idea would have to boot out an existing idea. Majority vote required for any decision to add or delete an idea. We can all track the performance at the http://www.marketocracy.com/ website. We can form an investment company around the concept if we are successful or just do it for fun.
Now, for the meeting Wednesday, October 10 -
I would like to present a slide show on some research I have been doing for many years about an "analog" to the current investment climate. The charts and data make the case that the current markets are closely mimicing a time period in the past. Since late 2002 when I realized the pattern, the markets have been unfolding accordingly and are confirming the hypothesis. Would you like to know what might be next? I am curious to hear your feedback. The forecast has implications on the level of interest rates, inflation, gold prices, real estate, stock prices, currency prices, Presidential election outcomes and mass psychology.
$50 PRIZE WEEKLY (or 2 - $25 prizes)
Lastly, remember to bring your "market forecast" to win $50 in a BobbyQ Coupon. See rules below. Whatever futures market (unless everyone wants to pick individual stocks, in which case there will be two categories and $25 for each prize) you think will move the most between the time of the meeting and the next meeting will win $50. We need to adjust the movement by dividing the price move by the average daily range (11-day average range) so everyone doesn't just pick Natural Gas (which seems to move 5%-10% every day).
Looking forward to seeing you Wednesday, October 10 at 5:30PM at Bobby Q's in Westport, CT. See http://www.bobbyqsrestaurant.com/ for directions.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Welcome to the Westport Traders Network
September 4, 2007
This is the official blog for the Westport Traders Network. We are a group of professional traders that united to form networking relationships in order to share expertise and connections in this ever dynamic field. We meet on Wednesday's or Thursday's at 5:30 P.M. in a local Westport, Connecticut establishment. Our meetings are held at Bobby Q's on Main Street where it is easy for everyone coming home from New York City, Stamford and from local trading outposts. Membership is open to all who have an interest in the profession of trading. Some members trade private capital and manage hedge funds. Other members bring years of technology experience and others span the vast horizon of roles in the field, from accounting, legal and headhunting careers. If you are interested in being a part of this dynamic group and wish to come to a meeting, then bring your referral from a current group member and stop in for a great networking experience. Bobby Q's has a great menu to order from while we listen to a presentation on a relevant topic in the upstairs meeting room. The meeting adjourns when the last member leaves the restaurant. Feel free to contact me, Tim West, President and Founder at 203-952-6721. We'll see you there at Bobby Q's, 5:30PM every Wednesday or Thursday. Get on the official email list by sending your name and contact info to twest@compocapital.com to confirm the exact date of the next meeting.
Directions to Bobby Q's Restaurant at 42 Main Street, Westport can be found at their website http://www.bobbyqsrestaurant.com/ or at Yahoo's Yellow Pages site: http://yp.yahoo.com/
This is the official blog for the Westport Traders Network. We are a group of professional traders that united to form networking relationships in order to share expertise and connections in this ever dynamic field. We meet on Wednesday's or Thursday's at 5:30 P.M. in a local Westport, Connecticut establishment. Our meetings are held at Bobby Q's on Main Street where it is easy for everyone coming home from New York City, Stamford and from local trading outposts. Membership is open to all who have an interest in the profession of trading. Some members trade private capital and manage hedge funds. Other members bring years of technology experience and others span the vast horizon of roles in the field, from accounting, legal and headhunting careers. If you are interested in being a part of this dynamic group and wish to come to a meeting, then bring your referral from a current group member and stop in for a great networking experience. Bobby Q's has a great menu to order from while we listen to a presentation on a relevant topic in the upstairs meeting room. The meeting adjourns when the last member leaves the restaurant. Feel free to contact me, Tim West, President and Founder at 203-952-6721. We'll see you there at Bobby Q's, 5:30PM every Wednesday or Thursday. Get on the official email list by sending your name and contact info to twest@compocapital.com to confirm the exact date of the next meeting.
Directions to Bobby Q's Restaurant at 42 Main Street, Westport can be found at their website http://www.bobbyqsrestaurant.com/ or at Yahoo's Yellow Pages site: http://yp.yahoo.com/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
